League One Betting: County to be tied up in Notts again

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 07 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The normally reliable Lee Hughes hasn't been as prolific in recent times and Notts have struggled

"Dagenham still have some fight, and will be right up for this. County seem to have lost all their drive and determination and could face an onslaught here of bodies and balls into their box."

Alan Dudman looks ahead to another intriguing weekend of League One action where

Brighton and Hove Albion [1.60] v Sheffield Wednesday [6.40], the draw [4.00]

Most accurate description of a player's ability this week goes to Sheffield Wednesday boss Gary Megson and his assessment of the returning midfielder James O'Connor. "He's not Iniesta." Indeed. He would probably say that himself.

So on to serious matters, and Wednesday's back-to-back home wins which have virtually preserved their League One status. The panic was there, but to the backdrop of the band at Hillsborough, the Owls thumped Tranmere 4-0 on Tuesday night, and secured a vital 2-1 win over Colchester last weekend. Successive wins for the first time in five months.

Megson's plan was simple, pick 11 players who want to win, play at high tempo and get at the opposition. Show plenty of commitment, desire and work hard. It wasn't quite Pep Guardiola science, but it has worked wonders, and the Owls boss must be applauded for some brave decisions.

Brighton are of course the 'Barca' of the division. With 84 points, the Albion have been the outstanding team of the season. Manager Gus Poyet said this week: "People say you can't get out of this division playing football - well that's rubbish." And Poyet has been a man of his word, and a splendid run of eight wins in row in March
has all but sealed the title.

The Seagulls play terrific football, and try to play from the back. Saturday's 2-2 draw with Rochdale was slightly disappointing, as Poyet's side were defensively not quite on it, and missed a few chances. In theory this game presents two contrasting styles.The visitors have won their games by tearing into the opposition straight away (but both at home), but lack the quality of the hosts.

Back Draw/Brighton @ [4.70]

Colchester United [2.50] v Rochdale [2.94], the draw [3.40]

If Brighton are the Barca, then Rochdale are the Villarreal of League One this term. Manager Keith Hill has worked wonders with a team that have collected 61 points and sit within pouncing distance of Bournemouth and a play-off place (plus they have a game in hand). All hail the Hill.

The Dale have won five out of their last six, whilst Saturday's 2-2 against Brighton was a terrific game in which both sides went for the win. It's that gameplan and philosophy which should give us a good angle into this Saturday's match. Hill will see this as winnable, and his tactic against Brighton was to press hard against a side that keep good possession.

Well Colchester do exactly that, certainly at home. Tactically last weekend's defeat at Sheffield Wednesday nearly worked, as manager John Ward went there to try and keep the crowd quiet early and soak up pressure. However, for me the Essex side
are better when on the front foot and keeping the ball. I think both teams can score here, but Rochdale are in such good form they can't be ignored.

Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.96]
Back Rochdale to win @ [2.94]

Dagenham and Redbridge [2.30] v Notts County [3.50], the draw [3.40]

Another week and another managerial exit, and maybe not surprising considering the recent record of Notts County. Paul Ince has gone. He becomes part of a staggering statistic that none of the last five Magpies managers have lasted longer than six months. And the Midlanders are in trouble, with five defeats in a row and one solitary goal from their last six games. The relegation price is currently [4.30] which could drop dramatically if losing this weekend. Could be a good trade.

Dagenham still have some fight, and will be right up for this. County seem to have lost all their drive and determination and could face an onslaught here of bodies and balls into their box. Caretaker manager Carl Heggs will have a tough job to do for the visitors, who look gone at the game.

Back Dagenham to win @ [2.30]
Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.96]

Former betting.betfair columnist Ben Herd plays for Aldershot against his old club Shrewsbury in a match Ian Lamont expects to finish all-square. Elsewhere Stevenage are good for a win away to Stockport....

Paul Ince has been sacked as manager of Notts County and after their recent run of results, it hardly came as a surprise....

Alan Dudman gives us the best bets from League One this weekend, including why the great entertainers Peterborough are worth backing In-Play with the Sky cameras on them....

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FA Cup Betting: Notts County v Manchester City

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tevez and Dzeko will hope to put Notts County to the sword

"Nine of City’s last 10 victories (all competitions) have come virtue of leading at half time, whilst every time they’ve led at half time in the league this term, they’ve gone on to win the game."

Paul Ince's side shocked Sunderland in the previous round, but Mike Norman believes lightning won't be striking twice against Manchester City. Best Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT at [2.1].

Venue: Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Kick-Off/TV: 14:00, Live on ITV1

You don't always get what you deserve in football, but from Notts County's perspective they definitely got one of the plum draws as reward for beating Premier League outfit Sunderland in round three. And there'll be no-one chomping at the bit ahead of this game more than Magpies boss Paul Ince - a former Manchester United player of course.

But Ince and his team will have to perform miracles if it is to be County that enter the hat for round five, as not only will they have to bridge a huge gulf in class (they are 59 places lower than City in the league ladder), they also have a terrible history to overcome - they haven't beaten Man City in nine games spanning a period of 20 years. Obviously much has changed in two decades; County is a club regularly dossing in the lower leagues whilst City have become the richest club in world football. They say the FA Cup is a great leveller though. We'll see.

County's form is a bit in and out at the moment - three wins on the bounce was followed by three games without a win - but in Lee Hughes they possess a striker that has played, and scored, at the highest level. Midfielder Alan Judge is sidelined with a foot injury, though captain Mike Edwards is expected to return after his absence in midweek with a hamstring injury.

Man City boss Roberto Mancini hasn't been afraid to field full-strength teams in cup competitions this season (Europa League and FA Cup) despite the Citizens being overwhelming favourites in many ties. I expect the same here which means Edin Dzeko should partner Carlos Tevez in attack, though England winger Adam Johnson is ruled out with an ankle injury.

Match Odds: Notts County [8.8], Manchester City [1.43], The Draw [5.2]
It's hard to envisage County producing a repeat of their third round heroics and therefore an away victory rates a confident selection. City's away form has been impressive in the Premier League this season - they've scored more goals on the road than they have at home - and they simply have too much talent within their side to slip up here. Famous last words and all that!

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Ince will definitely send his side out fired up and ready to give this cup tie a real go, and he'll probably be thinking if Leicester can score four times in two games against City then his boys are capable of scoring a few also. I'm not totally convinced that will be the case but I can definitely see County having their moments, whilst at the other end I fancy City to score a few times at least themselves. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.7] and that looks a safe bet - Notts County have averaged three goals per game in their three FA Cup ties this season whilst Man City's two games contained a total of 10 goals.

Half Time/Full Time
Both the Over 2.5 Goals and Man City to win options are fancied, but at [2.1] to back, the Man City/Man City option is my best bet of this game. Nine of City's last 10 victories (all competitions) have come virtue of leading at half time, whilst every time they've led at half time in the league this term, they've gone on to win the game.

If City do lead at half time then the omens are good that they'll go on to win the game, but with Betfair's In-Play market you don't have to endure the stress if you don't want to. As I've said, Man City HT/Man City FT is available to back at [2.1], so even if City hold just a single goal advantage at the interval those odds will shorten to around [1.3], giving you the option to lay your bet off for a healthy profit.

First Goalscorer
I won't be having a bet in this market, but for those of you who like to back strikers in these games then you can back Tevez at around [4.0], Dzeko at [4.5], and County's Hughes at [12.0] once the market materialises.

Best Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT at [2.1]
Also: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.7]

*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)

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