Euro 2012 
/ Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 25 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Gareth Barry could be booked if things get tasty in the heart of the midfield
"If in Wales’ last two matches the Republic of Ireland could put three past them and Switzerland four, there’s no reason why England can’t get all three goals needed themselves. Over 2.5 at 2.1is a pretty strong selection."
An injury to Wales' star player and plenty of mutterings about the England captaincy have dominated the build-up to this match but the busines of making money from it now takes centre stage, says Jamie Pacheco.
This website has already looked at the England captaincy issue (embed this link http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/was-capello-right-to-give-england-captaincy-back-to-terry-230311.html) so we won't go into it in any depth again. Suffice to say it only really became an issue because the two men who were at the top of the leadership pecking order - Rio Ferdinand and Steven Gerrard - are out injured and thus England are deprived of two automatic starters. For Wales there's no fairytale return from self-exiled international retirement for Ryan Giggs in Gary Speed's first qualifier in charge. The big news this week was the withdrawal of Gareth Bale from the Wales squad through injury. If you think a single player can't affect a liquid Betfair market, think again. England have come into [1.42] from [1.5] since his absence was confirmed.
Match Odds
The only times England and Wales have played each other over the past 15 years was during the qualifying campaign for the 2006 World Cup with England winning 1-0 both home and away. England are second in Group G behind Montenegro but have a game in hand, meaning they'll go top if they beat Wales thanks to a superior goal difference. Wales are rock bottom with no points from three matches but that's certainly not Speed's fault - this is his first qualifier in charge.
I actually think the Betfair market has correctly estimated the importance of Bale and what a blow his absence is to Wales' cause. With the Spurs winger in the side Speed's men could give Bale the ball and ask him to run at the suspect Glen Johnson and the pedestrian John Terry. Free-kicks could be won, players could be cautioned and gaps would be created for others to explore as defenders were dragged out of position. Without him, they're pretty much asking Craig Bellamy to roll back the years and single-handedly create chances.
By all means stick an England win at [1.43] in a Betfair Multiple but as far as this match goes, the only recommended bet can be lay of England at the aforementioned price and an In-Play back at around [1.65] which you should be able to get if the match is goalless after around half an hour.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
I've taken into account the thoughts of some of my esteemed colleagues when considering this market. Stats guru Mathew Walton has shown us how England have a high instance of over 2.5 goals matches whilst master tactician Michael Cox has explained that England have struggled to keep clean sheets recently because of too many central defensive partnerships. Both are good omens for another over 2.5 goals match being on the cards though of course the absence of the Spurs man means Wales have a weaker chance of scoring. Still, if in Wales' last two matches the Republic of Ireland could put three past them and Switzerland four, there's no reason why England can't get all three goals needed themselves. Over 2.5 at [2.1] is a pretty strong selection.
Correct Score
3-0 ([11.5]) and 2-1 ([10.0]) to England appeal in the correct score market for the reasons stated above but here at betting.betfair we don't like putting all our eggs in one basket. After all, if the match ends 2-1 or 3-0 the over 2.5 goals barrier would inevitably be broken anyway. So whereas we're happy to let our over 2.5 goals bet ride, we're going to back those two correct score selections pre-match and lay them at [3.0] if one or both hit that price In-Play. The advice is to have some profit on the "field" but keep most of your green on those two scores.
To be shown a card
He looks like he's only just reached puberty and seems like quite a nice bloke but Gareth Barry isn't as disciplined as one would think. He's picked up seven bookings for Manchester City this season and a further one while on international duty (Montenegro) and at around [4.0] rates a good option in this ever-intriguing market.
Top Stat:
England have kept just four clean sheets in their last 12 matches.
Best bet:
Back over 2.5 goals in Wales v England @ [2.1]
Recommended Bet:
Back Gareth Barry to be shown a card @ [4.0] or better
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