USA 
/ Matt Carothers / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Will the dirt be to Wilkinson's liking?
"I make Wilkinson my Blue Grass selection. I bet him in the Louisiana Derby as was surprised at how far back he was early on. He still managed to finish an OK sixth, and I expect him to be much more forwardly placed on Saturday."
Expert analyst Matt Carothers looks at the contenders in one of three big races Stateside this weekend - Saturday night's $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland
As great a race as the Blue Grass has been, with past winners including the likes of Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, Holy Bull and a host of other notables, a Blue Grass winner has not won the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991. Of course, Street Sense did capture the Roses in 2007 after finishing second to Dominican in the Blue Grass as the odds-on favorite.
The main reason that this prestigious race has not had the impact it once had on the Derby over the last two decades has little to do with the fact that Keeneland implemented a synthetic racing surface in 2007. I will say this: with the Derby run on dirt, it is very likely that we will be talking about how Strike the Gold was the last winner to also win on the first Saturday in May for some time to come. What is the excuse for the lack of success between 1992 and 2006?
To me it is pretty simple. The Derby is a race that is very difficult to win on the front-end, and during the aforementioned years speed was very dominant. Perfect example of this is what Sinister Minister did in the last Blue Grass run on dirt in 2006. How about a wire-to-wire by more than 12 lengths, in which he set fractions of 22:4, 45:4, and 1:09:4 for the opening six furlongs.
Not only is this year's edition of the race going to make for great betting opportunities, it also becomes even more of a key Derby prep because of how underwhelming many have looked in most of the other preps. Everyone thought we had a potential Triple Crown winner in Uncle Mo, with everybody else behind. Well, after his performance in the Wood Memorial, he has definitely joined the "everybody else." Depending on what The Factor does in the Arkansas Derby we could easily have a 6-1 favourite on May 7 at Churchill.
Time to break down the actual race: Santiva should be and will be the post-time favourite. He is coming off a very solid second in the Louisiana Derby, and as two-year-old, he ran second at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity in his only try over the track. In a race that is so wide-open, I generally loathe going with "chalk" so I will pass. Sensational Slam at 10-1 on the line could end up being where my win wager ends up. He is lightly-raced, improving each and every start, and has a tactical edge over many.
He may get the lead over a fairly paceless bunch, and may be tough to run down on the stretch-out. Many of you know me for being a man of great integrity, who also happens to be as loyal as they come. That is why I will make Wilkinson my Blue Grass selection. I bet him in the Louisiana Derby as was surprised at how far back he was early on. He still managed to finish an OK sixth, and I expect him to be much more forwardly placed on Saturday. Being by Lemon Drop Kid I expect him to move up on both grass and synthetic, which I am hoping bodes well for a horse that has raced on conventional dirt in five of six lifetime starts.
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Three bets for Sunday from Timeform's US team......
Three successful recommendations out of three yesterday, with winners at [3.5] and [2.45] and a losing lay at [2.3]. Here's hoping for more of the same tonight......
The Timeform Radio team focus their attention on a big night in American racing as well as some important upcoming meetings......
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