Championship 
/ Andrew Atherley / 03 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
The Canaries could be singing in the Premier League next season
"Norwich cemented second place on Saturday with a 6-0 home win over Scunthorpe and, with 70 points and a four-point gap back to Cardiff and Swansea with seven games to go, they look a good bet for the second automatic promotion place."
Andrew Atherley looks at the wisest wagers in the battle to make the Premier League
The Championship is living up to its reputation as a fiercely competitive league and the battle for the key finishing positions should once again go down to the wire. Four points separate the three teams likely to fight out the second automatic promotion place, while the same spread covers seven teams in the chase for the final playoff spot in sixth place.
One thing that is almost certain is that QPR will be promoted - they are [1.04] - and almost certainly as champions, for which they are [1.1]. They are the eighth team in 10 seasons to reach 76 points at this stage of the season and six of the previous seven went up - all as champions when they were the only team to have reached that mark. The exception to the rule was Wolves, who famously choked in 2001-02, allowing West Brom to roar past them and take second place.
Norwich cemented second place on Saturday with a 6-0 home win over Scunthorpe and, with 70 points and a four-point gap back to Cardiff and Swansea with seven games to go, they look a good bet for the second automatic promotion place.
A top-three finishing position was secured by 26 of the 27 teams that had at least 70 points at this stage in the past 10 seasons, which indicates Norwich will stay right in the reckoning for the other automatic promotion slot. And when the second-placed team has had at least 70 points, with a gap of three points or more to third place, they have been promoted seven times out of eight in the past 10 seasons - again, the sole exception was choking Wolves.
Another factor in Norwich's favour is that, while the average points total for second place in the past 10 seasons has been 87.4, the bar is likely to set lower this season. For weeks now the finishing line has seemed likely to be around 82 points and, as the games tick down, that is looking a tough target for most of the promotion candidates.
Norwich, though, look all set to get there.
By comparing the points totals of eventual runners-up at this stage and the end of the season, it is possible to calculate that Norwich will reach 82 or 83 points. If they do, Cardiff or Swansea will probably have to win six of their remaining seven games to deny the Canaries automatic promotion. Cardiff's best winning sequence this season was five games and Swansea's was four, so it looks a tall order for them to overhaul Norwich.
History suggests at least five of the current top six will make the playoffs at least and clearly the most vulnerable to a late charge from below is Reading, who moved into sixth place on goal difference this weekend. It also means that Leeds, at [1.5] for a top-six finish, look overpriced.
In the past seven seasons Blackpool, West Ham and Crystal Palace have made a late charge into the top six and ultimately to promotion via the playoffs, so any remaining value is likely to be with a team that can build similar momentum. Leicester, [13.0] for promotion, have the quality to do it and would have to be fancied if they make the playoffs.
But Reading have one of the easier run-ins, as well as a game in hand and a superior goal difference, and they might have enough to hold off all challengers. Based on the run-ins of each team and how they have performed against opponents from the various sectors of the table this season, the finishing points totals might look something like this: QPR 90, Norwich 82, Swansea 78, Cardiff 77, Leeds 75, Reading 74, Nottingham Forest 71, Millwall 69, Burnley 67, Hull 67, Watford 66, Leicester 66.
Recommended Bets
Norwich to be promoted at [1.84]
Leeds to finish in the top six at [1.5]
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