The Betfair Contrarian: Why Alberto Contador won't win the Tour de France

Tour De France / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Contador's off field problems give him a mountain to climb if he is to win a fourth Tour

"Andy Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador’s 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event."

The latest super Spaniard in the saddle is odds-on to beat the near 200-strong field home but that's a price you should be laying, says the Betfair Contrarian

Back when Lance Armstrong was in his pomp the Contrarian was instead busy predicting that DJ Pied Piper would be the best thing to happen to music since Spandau Ballet, and so never had the slightly intimidating pleasure of writing "Juan Pelota" off. This latest assignment feels just as daunting, however, as Alberto Contador has triumphed on the last three occasions that he has contested the Tour de France, yet the Contrarian reckons you should lay him for a fourth title at [1.71]. Here's why...

Contador has a monumental distraction...
For years, the Tour de France's appeal has been tarnished by doping suspicions and the problem won't be eradicated any time soon given that the Tour's holder is competing in the shadow of a failed drugs test in last year's edition. He was later banned because his sample was found to contain traces of clenbuterol, only to be controversially cleared by the Spanish authorities, who accepted his claim that the low concentration levels made food contamination the likely source. The Union Cycliste International were understandably furious and turned to the Court of Arbitration, though in a twist that does the sport's credibility no favours, the case was put back from June, allowing him to compete. Yet while Contador gets the opportunity to fight for a fourth win, the whispering campaign that will accompany his involvement and worries about the upcoming court showdown are sure to compromise his performance.

...and has shown signs of suffering
Contador's performance in the Volta ao Algarve and Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, two events that he won in 2010, provide further evidence that off-road troubles are affecting his cycling. This time round he finished a distant fourth in Portugal and all the way back in 24th in his homeland, where he was hampered by several punctures.

Schleck is a worthy adversary
Now that they no longer enter the Eurovision Song Contest, in which they impressively remain the joint-second most successful nation, Luxembourg need to look elsewhere for opportunities to shine on a global stage. The Tour de France is an obvious substitute, given that they have provided four winners in the highlight of the cycling calendar. The last of those was Charly Gaul in 1958 but it looks to be a matter of time before 26-year-old Andy Schleck becomes the fifth, and there is no reason why this won't prove to be his year at [3.5]. He fared better in his first appearance in the race than his main rival, ranking 12th to the Spaniard's 31st, and has built on that with two second-placed finishes, claiming the white jersey that is awarded to the best young rider on all three occasions.

The gap is narrower than ever
On Schleck's Tour de France debut in 2008, he finished over 11 minutes behind champion Carlos Sastre (Contador didn't participate in the race) despite topping the Young Riders' Classification, yet 12 months later he was within five minutes of Contador as the latter claimed his second title, before trailing by only 39 seconds as El Pistolero completed his hat-trick last July. Those figures illustrate that Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador's 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event. It is no surprise therefore that Schleck's Leopard Trek manager Brian Nygaard is confident of his star turn delivering.

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