Moto GP 
/ Trent Burton / 23 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
CAsey Stoner comes home first at Silverstone last time out - expect a repeat of this scene in Assen
"Traditionally, Stoner has gone well at Assen with two wins and a number of podiums and again it will take a stellar effort from someone else to stop him."
Trent Burton looks ahead to Saturday's race in Assen where he can't see past runaway championship leader Casey Stoner leading the field home
It was a wet and chaotic British MotoGP a fortnight ago and so far in Assen this weekend, things are no different.
The Dutch TT is 'the cathedral' of motorcycle racing. The fast and flowing circuit isn't quite the spectacle it used to be after recent layout changes but there were other problems today with torrential rain in the morning and the afternoon's sessions cancelled following an oil spill in Moto2.
Silverstone saw Casey Stoner put on the latest episode of 'Catch Me If You Can.' Even though we had no dry track time today and he was in third in the wet, he's still as short as [1.74] for the win in Holland with Marco Simoncelli, his closest rival in a developing market, available at [5.3]. That's as good an indication to the Australian's form as you'll see. Traditionally, Stoner has gone well at Assen with two wins and a number of podiums and again it will take a stellar effort from someone else to stop him.
So who can? Jorge Lorenzo ([6.0]) once again looks the man best suited to. He won comfortably here last year and his crash last time out was his first DNF since the latter stages of 2009. Yamaha will be running special livery this weekend to celebrate 50 years of GP Racing and they're very keen to celebrate that with a win. At his current price the defending champ represents excellent value again. Jorge can ill afford to let Stoner get away after surrendering the championship lead. But what he needs to do, and what that Yamaha will let him do, are very different things.
Simoncelli's price is all about is raw speed. He was quickest in today's wet session and, in qualifying at least, has been the only person to get close to Stoner of late. But he lacks consistency. While in line for a podium at Silverstone he crashed out yet again. By all accounts he should have four podiums already this season, yet he has none. He's also crashed whilst leading in Jerez; crashed on the first lap in Estoril and, of course, had that incident with Pedrosa in Le Mans. He'll eventually break the duck and make the podium but I can't have him for a win until he proves he can keep it together for a full race distance.
The dark horse of the weekend could be Valentino Rossi. Imagine that - Valentino Rossi, a dark horse. His British GP weekend was probably the worst of his career. Not cracking the top ten in qualifying and practice was one thing but then to finish nearly a minute behind the winner, in the wet, was a catastrophe.
Ducati have a new bike for him this weekend. The GP11.1. It's the 2012 frame on this year's bike and there's a new clutch system as well, based on the Honda. The Italian is very upbeat about it and was second in this morning's wet but we won't get an idea of how much of an improvement there is until, or rather if, we get a few dry sessions tomorrow. I don't see him challenging for the win, but [2.2] to finish in the top three, for the first time this season, is a punt worth taking on Rossi.
Remember, being Assen, the race is on Saturday. The field seems a little closer this weekend, and the weather should play a major role again, so anything could happen. I say could, but it most likely will be Stoner further stamping his authority on 2011.
Recommended Bets
Back Casey Stoner for the win at [1.74]
Back Valentino Rossi for the podium at [2.2]
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