Against All Odds 
/ Paul Robinson / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment Braga should win but it could be tight
"Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and that is definitely worth taking on, which is why I’m making it my lay of the day."
Braga host Guimaraes this evening in a clash in Portugal's Superliga. A home victory looks to be on the cards but it's the goal markets that represent the value according to Paul Robinson.
Braga are up in third place in the league with 43 points from 19 matches played. Manager, Leonardo Jadim, has his side on an incredible run of form that has seen them win eight games in a row, including an impressive 2-1 victory over Sporting Lisbon. The Archbishops have found the net 38 times and conceded 16 so far this campaign, giving their matches an average of 2.84 goals. In fact, their last nine have all had at least three goals or more which kind of makes a mockery of tonight's unders quote of [1.93]. At Estadio Municipal, Braga have scored 13 in their last five, but kept only one clean sheet, so that bodes well for overs as they aren't the type of side to keep it tight at home any more.
Guimaraes are lying sixth in the table after collecting 29 points from their 19 fixtures. Rui Vitória's men are in decent form after a shaky start to the season which saw them lose six of their opening eight games. Since then they have won eight out of 11 and given themselves a chance of emulating last year's European qualification. Guimaraes have scored 25 and conceded 19, giving their matches an average of 2.31 goals, but two of their last five away from home have gone over 2.5 and they actually scored nine times in that period, firing only one blank.
I wouldn't dissuade anyone from backing Braga in this one, but they are pretty short and don't represent that much value. The statistics suggest that they will win the match but also concede and as I'm a stat man, this is what I'm going to focus on. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and that is definitely worth taking on, which is why I'm making it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay under 2.5 goals @ [1.93]
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