Harry Redknapp: Poland, Portugal and Italy to qualify

Italy will leave nothing to chance against Ireland go through as runners-up.

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Back Poland @ 2.28 to qualify
Back Portugal @ 1.51 to qualify
Back Italy to qualify @ 1.79n/a

As we enter the final round of group matches at Euro 2012, Harry Redknapp tells us who he believes will make it to the knockout stages and in what order...

I backed a Spain v Germany final and I've seen nothing to change my mind. England look very good but we're a work in progress and reaching the knock-out stages will be a decent achievement. The Spanish showed their class against Ireland and Germany have dominated the so-called Group of Death. Those two are on course to set up a cracking final.

It's been a good Euros so far - 16 matches and still no 0-0. We're yet to see a big upset but there's been some excellent football and top goals. Going in to the final round of matches, I've decided to pick some bets from Betfair's To Qualify and Group Winner markets.

Russia are the strongest team in Group A and, with three goals already, Alan Dzagoev is always a danger. I expect them to finish top but I was impressed by the way Poland battled back against Dick Advocaat's team. It should be a great night in Wroclaw when they take on the unpredictable Czechs and I think the home side will do their fans proud and qualify for the knock-out stages with a win.

With Robin van Persie and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Holland boast an array of attacking talent. But it hasn't clicked for them and I can't see them beating Portugal. I'm backing Cristiano Ronaldo and his team-mates to go through as Group B runners-up, following a draw with the Dutch. Germany, of course, will be group winners.

England will qualify from Group D along with France but it's impossible to know whether that will be as group winners or runners-up. One thing is for certain: you'd rather play Italy or Croatia than Spain in the quarter-final.

The Italians frustrated the defending champions in their opener but against Ireland they were at their silky best. Andreas Iniesta and Xavi are impossible to live with in full flow and Fernando Torres showed that he's still a potent threat when he struck twice. They should beat Croatia and finish top. Italy will leave nothing to chance against Ireland and go through as runners-up.

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Back Italy to qualify @ 1.79n/a

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Against All Odds: Unders is the bet in Portugal

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Braga should win but it could be tight

"Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and that is definitely worth taking on, which is why I’m making it my lay of the day."

Braga host Guimaraes this evening in a clash in Portugal's Superliga. A home victory looks to be on the cards but it's the goal markets that represent the value according to Paul Robinson.

Braga are up in third place in the league with 43 points from 19 matches played. Manager, Leonardo Jadim, has his side on an incredible run of form that has seen them win eight games in a row, including an impressive 2-1 victory over Sporting Lisbon. The Archbishops have found the net 38 times and conceded 16 so far this campaign, giving their matches an average of 2.84 goals. In fact, their last nine have all had at least three goals or more which kind of makes a mockery of tonight's unders quote of [1.93]. At Estadio Municipal, Braga have scored 13 in their last five, but kept only one clean sheet, so that bodes well for overs as they aren't the type of side to keep it tight at home any more.

Guimaraes are lying sixth in the table after collecting 29 points from their 19 fixtures. Rui Vitória's men are in decent form after a shaky start to the season which saw them lose six of their opening eight games. Since then they have won eight out of 11 and given themselves a chance of emulating last year's European qualification. Guimaraes have scored 25 and conceded 19, giving their matches an average of 2.31 goals, but two of their last five away from home have gone over 2.5 and they actually scored nine times in that period, firing only one blank.

I wouldn't dissuade anyone from backing Braga in this one, but they are pretty short and don't represent that much value. The statistics suggest that they will win the match but also concede and as I'm a stat man, this is what I'm going to focus on. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and that is definitely worth taking on, which is why I'm making it my lay of the day.

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Lay under 2.5 goals @ [1.93]

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Leicester City travel to East Midlands rivals Derby tonight for what will be a highly competitive match in the English Championship. Four of Leicester's last five games have had three goals or more yet under 2.5 is trading at [1.83]....

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The Joker's Bet of the Day: Old gold in Portugal

The Joker's Bet Of The Day / The Joker / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Both Teams to Score @ [2.4] in Braga v Setubal

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

It's been a week of vivid, poetic match-ups for this column, from the comic-book heroes of the Blue Flame and Red Lightning, through the merciless, swooping attacks of eagles - both young and black, Italian and Greek - on their prey. Today's game, however, is straight from Father Ted's All-Priests Over-75s 5-a-side tournament.

It's the Old Gentlemen of Setubal - or is it Vitoria? - against the Archbishops of Braga. Both teams have scored in each of Vitoria Setubal's last six Portuguese Liga matches, while Sporting Braga have scored and conceded in each of their most recent eight league games.

Both of them need a kick up the arse.

Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ [2.4] in Braga v Setubal

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

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The Joker's Bet of the Day: Old gold in Portugal

The Joker's Bet Of The Day / The Joker / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Both Teams to Score @ [2.4] in Braga v Setubal

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

It's been a week of vivid, poetic match-ups for this column, from the comic-book heroes of the Blue Flame and Red Lightning, through the merciless, swooping attacks of eagles - both young and black, Italian and Greek - on their prey. Today's game, however, is straight from Father Ted's All-Priests Over-75s 5-a-side tournament.

It's the Old Gentlemen of Setubal - or is it Vitoria? - against the Archbishops of Braga. Both teams have scored in each of Vitoria Setubal's last six Portuguese Liga matches, while Sporting Braga have scored and conceded in each of their most recent eight league games.

Both of them need a kick up the arse.

Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ [2.4] in Braga v Setubal

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

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International Friendly Betting: Argentina v Portugal

Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

I Believe in Meireles: The Liverpool midfielder has scored four times already this year.

"Meireles has scored four times in his last five Premier League appearances."

Tobias Gourlay explains why you should look beyond Ronaldo and Messi for your value bet on Wednesday's big match in Geneva.

Cristiano Ronaldo versus Lionel Messi. The first meeting of Portugal and Argentina since 1972. What a momentous occasion this could have been. If only it wasn't a friendly being played in Switzerland. Expect more neutrals than partisans in Geneva on Wednesday night.

Messi might be injured too. With Aguero, Tevez and Higuain already missing, this will only encourage Argentina's coach, Sergio Batista, to use another one of his fringe players. That's usually the point of friendlies these days, but this one was supposed to be a money-spinner.

At least Paulo Bento's playing ball. The Portugal coach has chosen Ronaldo, Nani and even Ricardo Quaresma in his squad. Bento has won his first three games in charge and might exploit the good club form of Liverpool's Raul Meireles in this match.

Meireles has scored four times in his last five Premier League appearances. The international scoring records of Messi and Ronaldo are not as good as you might think and, if he starts, Meireles will be a more appealing bet in the To Score market at [8.0] or more.

Argentina only conceded twice in seven friendlies in 2010. Remember, though, that Diego Maradona, who liked to play up to four centre-backs in the same team, was in charge for most of those games. Batista's tactical plan is not yet fully developed.

While that is the case - and while he is up against another novice coach - bettors should be cautious, especially over friendlies in which he has said he will be experimenting. Portugal look much better value at [3.25] than Argentina at [2.46], if you must get involved in Match Odds betting.

Best Bet: Back Raul Meireles To Score at [8.0]

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Tobias Gourlay explains why you should look beyond Ronaldo and Messi for your value bet on Wednesday's big match in Geneva....

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