World Hurdle 
/ Simon Rowlands / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Smad Place (centre): One of Simon's bets in the "without Big Buck's market"
"Smad Place has won three of his five starts, including a decent handicap hurdle at Ascot in January, and promises to be very well suited by a further step up in distance."
The short price of Big Buck's in his attempt to win a fourth successive World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March need not put you off having a bet. Simon Rowlands, Timeform's Head of Research and Development, explains...
Big Buck's will probably win the World Hurdle at Cheltenham on March 15.
As statements of the bleeding obvious go, that's right up there with observing that The Pope wears a funny hat and that bears do their stuff in the woods.
Once upon a time, that might also be the end of the matter from a betting point of view as well.
You either decided to be with Big Buck's at a very short price, or - well - you didn't.
You might, at a push, go for an each-way bet against him, despite not necessarily wanting the win part of that win and place bet.
Now for a less obvious statement: Big Buck's will probably win the World Hurdle, but he will also probably trade bigger than his current Betfair price of [1.59] at some point between now and March 15, or in the race itself. If that is so, you should be able to profit from the great horse, whether he wins or loses.
A form search for Big Buck's on the Timeform free site shows that he has traded higher in-running than pre-race in all but one of his 15 consecutive hurdle wins since unseating over fences in November 2008. It also reveals that he has seldom traded much higher, and that's despite him often looking very far from a certainty at some stage of those races.
Big Buck's tends to hit a "flat spot" in his races. He also tends to win them easily. In-play punters have wised up.
However, it is also true that he has not met a two to two-and-a-half mile hurdler of the calibre of Oscar Whisky in that time. Oscar Whisky was third in a good Champion Hurdle last year and often travels like a dream in his races.
Whether or not you think Oscar Whisky will be as effective at the three miles of the World Hurdle (I don't), it is very easy to envisage him going very much like a winner half a mile out at Cheltenham. And, if he does, the in-running price of Big Buck's should increase accordingly.
That is one possible angle of approach. Another is to play in the "betting without Big Buck's" market.
Oscar Whisky is the best horse, but if he fails to stay he could well drop away completely. It is more appealing to side with a less obvious alternative, and there are some decent ones to choose from.
One piece of received wisdom about the World Hurdle is that it is a graveyard for young horses. This is not true.
So-called "trends analysis" that concentrates only on winners, and which does not factor in opportunity and expectation, miss the point.
No five-year-old has won the race, but few have tried. Those that have tried have performed better than par. Their seven representatives since 2000 have included two thirds and a fourth: no five-year-old has finished worse than seventh. They have beaten 68.1% of their rivals, where 50% could be expected.
Six-year-olds have also fared better than average, and have produced three winners (including Big Buck's himself in 2009) from 30 runners, with a rivals-beaten percentage of 55.8.
It is with this in mind - though not exclusively - that I recommend a couple at bigger prices: the five-year-old Smad Place (currently [27.0] in the "without Big Buck's" market) and the appropriately-named six-year-old So Young ([10.0]).
Smad Place has won three of his five starts, including a decent handicap hurdle at Ascot in January, and promises to be very well suited by a further step up in distance. The Willie Mullins-trained So Young has mopped up minor hurdles on his last three starts in Ireland in the style of one who can make his mark at a higher grade.
Betting is - understandably - a pastime for adults. But for too long bettors have been treated like children and denied the full opportunity to manage their positions and to capitalise on their views.
Back, lay, take a price, offer a price, win, place, without the favourite, trading in and out, in-running, ante-post, and much more come the day: the choice is yours.
And the World Hurdle - not so much despite the presence of a long odds-on favourite as because of it - provides a good opportunity for grown-ups to explore all the options.
Recommendations
Lay Big Buck's to lose 3 pts at [1.60], with view to backing at > [2.0] in-running
1 pt win Smad Place at [27.0] and 1 pt win So Young at [10.0], in "without Big Buck's" market.
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