FA Cup 
/ Andrew Atherley / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Luis Enrique has been a standout performer in the Liverpool back four this year
"Liverpool have won nine and lost just two of their 15 ties in all cup competitions since Dalglish took charge."
Andrew Atherley once again roots through the statistics ahead of this weekend's cup and league games with Liverpool and West Brom catching the eye
Some might say the only consistent thing about Liverpool is their inconsistency - and perhaps that is what has made them such a good cup side under Kenny Dalglish.
Liverpool have won nine and lost just two of their 15 ties in all cup competitions since Dalglish took charge. At home the record is four wins and two draws out of six (the draws were against Manchester City and against Braga in last season's Europa League), which makes them hot favourites to progress when they host Stoke on Sunday in the FA Cup quarter-finals.
In fact, backing Liverpool now for the FA Cup at [4.3] could be a good bet as they are sure to shorten if they reach the semis.
Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard was quick to call on his team-mates to achieve more consistent good results in the wake of Tuesday's 3-0 home win over Everton, which picked them up after defeats against Arsenal and Sunderland.
Yet there have been consistent aspects to Liverpool's form - notably their excellent home defence, which could be the telling factor against Stoke. The Reds have the joint-second-lowest goals-against at home this season in the Premier League and that's going to make life difficult for the Potters, who have had a barren time away to the big six.
Since promotion, Stoke's record in that category is one win, three draws and 21 defeats (a loss rate of 84 per cent) in the Premier League and cup competitions. They have failed to score in 16 of the 25 games (including all four visits to Anfield).
Rather than back Liverpool to win on Sunday at odds of [1.43], better-priced options on the stats are the Liverpool clean sheet at [1.91] and Liverpool to win to nil.
West Brom's winning run came to an end with a 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford on Sunday but there was no surprise - nor any disgrace - in losing to new league leaders Manchester United.
Roy Hodgson's side are on their travels again on Saturday and the task could not be any more different - this time the opponents are bottom club Wigan. And win odds of [2.64] indicate the Baggies may be underrated as they try to enhance their excellent away record.
Only five teams have beaten the Baggies on their travels this season and, in reverse order, those teams are Manchester United, Tottenham, Arsenal, Swansea and Chelsea. That's a high-class group of opponents (all five rank in the top eight on home form) and it does not reflect badly on Hodgson's men that they lost those games.
What the market appears not to have recognised yet is that West Brom's away record against teams outside the big six is rock-solid under Hodgson with eight wins, five draws and just two defeats. That makes them deserving favourites against Wigan, who have managed only one win out of 14 at home this season, and arguably the odds should be even shorter.
The fact that the odds are not, along with the draw rates of both teams, makes West Brom off -0 on the Asian handicap a solid bet at [1.82].
As back-up to West Brom's away stats against teams outside the big six is their record of seven wins out of ten (with just one defeat) under Hodgson against teams that rank in the bottom half on home form.
It is particularly noteworthy that eight of those 10 games have had over 2.5 goals, which can be backed at [2.06] in Saturday's match at Wigan, whose lower-scoring tendencies may be outweighed by the Baggies' high return against teams outside the elite.
Recommended Bets
Liverpool to win to nil against Stoke
West Brom off -0 on the Asian handicap v Wigan at [1.82]
Wigan v West Brom over 2.5 goals at [2.06]
Byrom rewards first goalscorer backers as Stevenage take shock lead before Defoe does the business. Meanwhile, in Europe, Barca send a message to rivals with big win......
Spurs trail Liverpool by the slimmest margin in the FA Cup winner market, but a professional but unemphatic triumph over Stevenage might alter that......
Roberto Di Matteo is likely in for a rough ride during his interim stint as Chelsea boss, but Michael Lintorn anticipates an encouraging start at least......
No comments:
Post a Comment