March 14, 2012

In-running Week: Cheltenham Festival special

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Pure class - Barry Geraghty celebrates riding Sprinter Sacre to victory

Pure class - Barry Geraghty celebrates riding Sprinter Sacre to victory

"Montbazon travels well and keeps finding. But he has a tendency to make a mistake at the last."

An impatient Neil Munro considers some of the stars of day one at the Cheltenham Fesitval and explains how we should bet on them in future...


Maybe I should wait before analysing the Cheltenham form but, on day one, there were some horses that confirmed thoughts that I had going into the Festival.

Montbazon

Alan King was very upbeat before the Supreme Novice Hurdle, setting out that Montbazon had been working very well at home but admitting that he may not be good enough. So it proved with Montbazon finishing fourth behind Cinders And Ashes. However, he showed enough of the qualities that means I will be attempting to trade on him in the future. Montbazon is a battler who travels well and keeps finding. My main issue with him, and the reason that has brought about his last two defeats, is his propensity to make a mistake at the last. I believe this has cost him at Newbury, and in the Supreme. But because of his courageous qualities he is definitely worth a back to lay policy.

Back Montbazon pre-race at BSP and then lay out double your stake at one quarter the matched price. I would also put up a small speculative back bet at a big price.

Sprinter Sacre

Nicky Henderson's six-year-old was not as keen as before. He didn't trade high in the run - in fact, he didn't break evens - but he still took a while to settle. He is pure class but he remains on the list because his keeness could yet make him an interesting option for in-running bettors.

The Package

How good are the Pipes at getting a horse back to his best after a long layoff? Some mornings I feel I could benefit from time in the swimming pool that they use to get horses fit. The Package went to Cheltenham after being off the race track for over 450 days but ran superbly well to finish fourth in the 3m Handicap Chase on Day One of the Festival 2012. Historically, he's covered the ground in an eye-catching fashion from off the pace, and did so again before just fading. He always runs well at Cheltenham and in his last four defeats there he has traded [2.1], [2.1], [2.0] and [2.2]. He might go for the National but his two runs at Aintree, including one in the National, have both been poor.

Away from Aintree, back The Package pre-race at BSP and then lay out 150% of your stake at half the matched price.

The Champion Hurdle

This was a fantastic race and fascinating to try and dissect. Rock On Ruby travelled superbly well, as he has done previously and kept on finding up the hill, worth remembering for the future. Overturn is just as game as they come, and this was a career best performance. Hurricane Fly just didn't pick up and it will be interesting if an explanation comes to light. The race also featured two fascinating characters from an in-running point of view. Oscars Well again travelled well, didn't quite hit half his BSP in-running and again didn't take the last perfectly. To me he just needs to step up in trip but he does tend to trade low in the run. Just ahead of him, Zarkandar did his best work late on, to finish fifth. Look through all his runs and he does keep finding but, while campaigned over this kind of trip, I believe he will always trade bigger in the run.

Recommended
Rock On Ruby - Back to lay.
Overturn - Back to lay.
Oscars Well - Back to lay over 2m2f or further.
Zarkander - Lay to Back over 2m.

Sprinter Sacre has been given a Timeform master rating of 174p following his brilliant win in the Arkle Chase on the opening day of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, making him the most highly rated novice chaser of the modern era......

Timeform look back on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, providing provisional ratings for the winners.......

Rock On Ruby ran out a most impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham under Noel Fehily......


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