Against All Odds 
/ Paul Robinson / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Oscar Cardozo is one of Benfica's attacking threats...
"With the likes of Oscar Cardozo, Bruno Cesar and Fabian Gaitan at their disposal, the Portugese side can be lethal when going forward... "
Chelsea take on Benfica in the second leg of their Champions League quarter final this evening and hold a 1-0 lead from the game in Portugal. With only a draw required to go through, Paul Robinson thinks that their win odds of [1.78] are a bit too short.
Chelsea have been revitalised since Roberto Di Matteo took over in March and have lost just the one match under his management. I wouldn't say it was so much his own greatness that has caused this change, more likely that the players prefer him to Andre Villas Boas and have decided to give 100 percent. There was no better proof of that than in the 4-1 win over Napoli in the last round and then the fantastic 1-0 defeat of Benfica in Portugal a fortnight ago.
In truth, Chelsea were fortunate to win the first leg, with the hosts dominating most of the relevant stats and the Blues will have to play better tonight if they want to set up a semi-final against Barcelona. They will also have to defend much better than they did on Saturday at Villa Park where they conceded two sloppy goals and nearly threw away the three points. Di Matteo does have an almost fully fit squad to choose from but my nagging doubt about them getting the win here is that a draw is good enough and Benfica have absolutely nothing to lose.
Benfica come into this one on the back of a major victory over Braga in their domestic league and the 90th minute winner from Bruno Cesar could well end up winning them the title. Jorge Jesus has got his side playing some great stuff at times this season and they dominated Manchester United home and away in the group phase of this competition. The Eagles weren't at their best in the first leg at Estádio da Luz, but they didn't deserve to lose and are more than capable of winning in London tonight.
Benfica have lost just the once on the road in Europe this season but they have scored at least one goal in every match and twice in their last three on the trot. With the likes of Oscar Cardozo, Bruno Cesar and Fabian Gaitan at their disposal, the Portugese side can be lethal when going forward and I fully expect them to give John Terry and co are troublesome evening.
The English press have been talking as if Chelsea are home and hosed in this one, but that's premature. Benfica are a top side and Chelsea are still below their form of recent seasons, despite being on a good. Taking into account the fact that they don't even have to win to go through, odds-on seems pretty skinny and I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea against Benfica @ [1.78]
Oldham travel to Brentford tonight for a clash in England's League One with under 2.5 goals trading at odds-on. Three of Oldham's last five away matches have been five goal thrillers though. Paul Robinson talks us through his lay of...
Sevilla take on Mallorca in Spain's La Liga tonight and are odds-on to take the three points. With just two wins in 10 at home though, in-form tipster Paul Robinson believes they are far too short a price and are...
Willem II travel to FC Oss this evening in Netherlands' Jupiler League and are odds-on to pick up the victory. The hosts will be no pushovers though and they've lost just the once in the last half dozen at home....
No comments:
Post a Comment