Premier League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Danny Graham and Swansea can cause Newcastle plenty of problems this Friday
"The standout results for Swansea have been at their Liberty stronghold, where they have lost just three of their 15 matches (one of which was against leaders Manchester United). Manchester City and Arsenal both lost there, while Chelsea and Tottenham escaped with draws."
The stats suggest another strong performance from the home side when Swans host Magpies. Elsewhere, an ever-improving Sunderland should give also give Tottenham plenty of problems, says Andrew Atherley.
Swansea and Newcastle, two of the surprise high achievers of the season, go head to head in the live TV match on Good Friday and there are strong stats on both sides that point to the home team.
The standout results for Swansea have been at their Liberty stronghold, where they have lost just three of their 15 matches (one of which was against leaders Manchester United). Manchester City and Arsenal both lost there, while Chelsea and Tottenham escaped with draws.
Ball possession and a mean defence are the cornerstones of Swansea's impressive record - only the two Manchester clubs have kept more home clean sheets and the Swans have the joint-second-lowest goals-against at home, behind United - and their style of play continues to win admirers.
The only poor result at home - and even that description is debatable - was the 3-2 defeat by Norwich in February and another minor quibble is that the draw rate is high (six out of 15, or 40 per cent).
But the possibility of a draw can be covered to some extent on the Asian handicap in Friday's game, where Newcastle are priced on their solid overall form but may be vulnerable judged by their away record against the strongest home teams.
This is the area where Alan Pardew's team have been weakest - they have played seven of the top 10 home teams and their record is one win, one draw and five defeats. Even the win is open to question, as it came early in the season against Sunderland before Martin O'Neill engineered such improvement at the Stadium of Light.
That record gives Swansea, who rank ninth on home form, a decent win chance at [2.48] but they look most solid off -0&-0.5 on the Asian handicap at [2.12]
This season's showdowns between the top five have been enjoyable to watch - as well as hugely profitable for goals backers - and Arsenal v Manchester City on Sunday could follow the same pattern.
Fourteen of the 17 matches in that category have had over 2.5 goals, including both of Arsenal's at home and all three of City's on the road. Both teams rank in the top six overall for matches with over 2.5 goals, which appeals at [1.84].
City have won five out of six (with one defeat) against the rest of the top five, which indicates a good win chance at [3.0] but nearly all their good results on the road were in the first three months of the season.
Since the fireworks display of their 3-2 win at QPR on November 5, City have won only two of their nine away games in the Premier League. In the same period they won 1-0 at Arsenal in the Carling Cup and it's possible to make a case for them on the overall stats, but the win is a risk even at seemingly attractive odds.
A mini-system that's working is a plus, which means that once again the Premier League's recent improvers are worth highlighting.
The improvers are the teams who have averaged more points in the second half of the season than up to halfway, with Manchester United clearly leading that group.
In the past two weeks, three of the improvers have played at home to regressive teams (those whose points average has declined since the halfway point) and all three have won.
The only team that falls into that category this weekend is Sunderland, who host Tottenham on Saturday. The visitors appear to be on the up again, so perhaps the safety net of the Asian handicap is worth having. Sunderland, who have lost only one of their eight home league games under Martin O'Neill, are [3.3] for the win and [1.96] off +0&+0.5 on the Asian handicap.
Recommendations
Swansea off -0&-0.5 on the Asian handicap v Newcastle at [2.12]
Over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Manchester City at [1.84]
Sunderland off +0&+0.5 on the Asian handicap v Tottenham at [1.96]
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