"Despite failing to settle in front, Maccabees tanked along on the bridle for much of the race, and was the only horse still on the bridle with 3f to run there."
With torrential rain continuing to play havoc with the going at most of today's meetings, it's at Bath, with its unwatered old turf that Timeform go for the day's best bets.
Race of the day at the Lansdown Hill venue is the extended 11f handicap for 3-y-o's at 16:50 in which Hugo Palmer's Talk of The North shades favouritism. The Haafhd filly is a likeable sort and almost certainly still ahead of the handicapper, but she had a hard race at Wolverhampton just nine days ago, and her previous record suggests she needs a bit of time between her races. With that in mind, she's reluctantly passed over (but is still one for the notebook).
Silver Samba was a strong finisher in a steadily-run 11f handicap at Kempton last time, and will be better suited by today's test if proving herself as adept on turf (bred to do so, and yard's runners tend to go well at this idiosyncratic course), which makes her the likeliest winner, but it's the claims of the Rod Millman-trained Maccabees which intrigue me.
The son of Motivator is far from straightforward, and has been held back by his headstrong tendencies. He finished a well-held sixth of 10 at Nottingham last time when upped to 1¾m, but a closer look at that run reveals more than the bare result. Despite failing to settle in front, Maccabees tanked along on the bridle for much of the race, and was the only horse still on the bridle with 3f to run there. He folded rather tamely when headed, but that's not surprising given how he fought his jockey there, and a drop to this sort of trip looks sure to suit.
With fellow pace-setter Daring Damsel now a non-runner, Maccabees looks set to gain an easy lead. If he settles better than he did last time, he might prove hard to catch, and will give trading options for in-running players at the very least. I'd recommend backing Maccabees to lay back in running, and also backing Silver Samba as a saver.
With York beset by rain, I'm reluctant to go in heavily, but will expect good runs from the Ruth Carr pair Dubai Dynamo (14:35) and Moheebb (16:15), both of whom will be looking to make a late move, and while neither are particularly easy to win with, the set-up of the races they run in should suit their running style, and both are capable of making the frame at rewarding odds. They are certainly going in my placepot!
Recommended Bets:
Back Maccabees in the 16:50 Bath @18.017/1 (NAP)
Back Silver Samba in the 16:50 Bath @ 8.07/1 (NB)
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