August 23, 2012

Diamond League Athletics: Bolt tops bill in medallist-stuffed Lausanne

"52 medallists from the Olympics will be competing in Lausanne, including 19 who won gold, and some races are virtual re-runs of the Olympic finals."

2 points back Kirani James at 1.608/13 in Men’s 400m.

Usain Bolt and Mariya Savinova should win in Lausanne, but their likely odds are nothing to get excited about. There is value to be found with Olympic champion Kirani James, though, and Women's 100m silver-medallist Carmelita Jeter can gain her revenge for Olympic defeat, writes Jack Houghton.


Some might say it's hard to get up for another athletics' meeting so soon after the Olympics, but with Athletissima - the funkily-named latest instalment of the Diamond League - the folks from Lausanne have done their best to put on a show that even the most satiated track and field fan should be able to find motivation for. 52 medallists from the Olympics will be there, including 19 who won gold, and some races are virtual re-runs of the Olympic finals.

And although the last few bets of those Olympics were disastrous from a punting perspective, those who followed the recommendations on betting.betfair would have nonetheless turned a healthy profit across the ten days, and should be ready to consolidate those winnings in Switzerland.


Men's 400m:
In Kirani James, Luguelin Santos and Lalonde Gordon, organisers have reunited all the medallists from London. They will be joined by two other Olympic finalists, in Kevin Borlee and Demetrius Pinder, two semi-finalists, and the promising Jamaican 20-year-old, Rusheen McDonald.

Impressive when running sub-44s to win gold, it's hard to see why James shouldn't confirm form here, especially as he's already demonstrated that he's recovered from the emotional impact of winning an Olympic title as a teenager by winning in Austria earlier in the week. There may be some concern that his post-Olympic schedule is hectic, but, as we pointed out prior to the Olympics, he raced very sparingly earlier in the year, so should be fresh enough in this competitive race.

At the time of writing the markets on the event are fairly illiquid, but I'll be looking to support James at any price over 1.608/13. Kevin Borlee, who seemed to struggle with the three-round format of the Olympics, and who, arguably, ran a better race in his semi-final than he did in the final, is worth a speculative interest in the top three market.


Women's 100m:
As in the Men's 400m, five Olympic finalists line-up for this, including all the medallists, but whether Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce can give both double-barrels to Carmelita Jeter and Veronica Campbell-Brown, who followed her home in London, is less certain. Jeter looked unbalanced during her drive phase in the Olympic final, and I make it little more than a coin-toss as to which of Fraser-Pryce and Jeter will win here. Given that Jeter is likely to be available at around 2.506/4, and she will be the one with most to prove, it is worth siding with the American to enact revenge on her Jamaican rival.


Women's 800m:
The result may well have pained me in the extreme, but whichever way you look at the race - and I've looked at a few dozen replays of it since - Mariya Savinova was imperious in winning Olympic gold, and there is little reason to think she won't be similarly despotic in deciding the outcome of this partial Olympic rematch. Neither Pamela Jelimo or Janeth Jepkosgei showed anything in London that would suggest they can reverse placings with Savinova here, and only a tactical error should prevent the Russian from asserting her dominance.

However, at the likely prices - I expect Savinova to be around the 1.3030/100-mark - there is little value to be had in backing the Olympic champion to win, so the smart call is to watch the race, raucously booing and hissing each of Savinova's strides.


Men's 200m:
From a marketing point-of-view, the highlight of the night will be Usain Bolt's appearance in, and winning of, the Men's 200m, but unless you had your mortgage on Frankel and are looking to roll your returns on to another sure thing, then there is little to attract punters to the race, as Bolt will start at around 1.051/20.


The Diamond League meeting from Lausanne is live on BBC Three on Thursday from 1900hrs (BST).

Recommendations:
2 points back Kirani James at 1.608/13 in Men's 400m.
1 point back Carmelita Jeter at 2.506/4 in Women's 100m.

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