Diamond League Athletics: Bolt tops bill in medallist-stuffed Lausanne

"52 medallists from the Olympics will be competing in Lausanne, including 19 who won gold, and some races are virtual re-runs of the Olympic finals."

2 points back Kirani James at 1.608/13 in Men’s 400m.

Usain Bolt and Mariya Savinova should win in Lausanne, but their likely odds are nothing to get excited about. There is value to be found with Olympic champion Kirani James, though, and Women's 100m silver-medallist Carmelita Jeter can gain her revenge for Olympic defeat, writes Jack Houghton.

Some might say it's hard to get up for another athletics' meeting so soon after the Olympics, but with Athletissima - the funkily-named latest instalment of the Diamond League - the folks from Lausanne have done their best to put on a show that even the most satiated track and field fan should be able to find motivation for. 52 medallists from the Olympics will be there, including 19 who won gold, and some races are virtual re-runs of the Olympic finals.

And although the last few bets of those Olympics were disastrous from a punting perspective, those who followed the recommendations on betting.betfair would have nonetheless turned a healthy profit across the ten days, and should be ready to consolidate those winnings in Switzerland.

Men's 400m:
In Kirani James, Luguelin Santos and Lalonde Gordon, organisers have reunited all the medallists from London. They will be joined by two other Olympic finalists, in Kevin Borlee and Demetrius Pinder, two semi-finalists, and the promising Jamaican 20-year-old, Rusheen McDonald.

Impressive when running sub-44s to win gold, it's hard to see why James shouldn't confirm form here, especially as he's already demonstrated that he's recovered from the emotional impact of winning an Olympic title as a teenager by winning in Austria earlier in the week. There may be some concern that his post-Olympic schedule is hectic, but, as we pointed out prior to the Olympics, he raced very sparingly earlier in the year, so should be fresh enough in this competitive race.

At the time of writing the markets on the event are fairly illiquid, but I'll be looking to support James at any price over 1.608/13. Kevin Borlee, who seemed to struggle with the three-round format of the Olympics, and who, arguably, ran a better race in his semi-final than he did in the final, is worth a speculative interest in the top three market.

Women's 100m:
As in the Men's 400m, five Olympic finalists line-up for this, including all the medallists, but whether Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce can give both double-barrels to Carmelita Jeter and Veronica Campbell-Brown, who followed her home in London, is less certain. Jeter looked unbalanced during her drive phase in the Olympic final, and I make it little more than a coin-toss as to which of Fraser-Pryce and Jeter will win here. Given that Jeter is likely to be available at around 2.506/4, and she will be the one with most to prove, it is worth siding with the American to enact revenge on her Jamaican rival.

Women's 800m:
The result may well have pained me in the extreme, but whichever way you look at the race - and I've looked at a few dozen replays of it since - Mariya Savinova was imperious in winning Olympic gold, and there is little reason to think she won't be similarly despotic in deciding the outcome of this partial Olympic rematch. Neither Pamela Jelimo or Janeth Jepkosgei showed anything in London that would suggest they can reverse placings with Savinova here, and only a tactical error should prevent the Russian from asserting her dominance.

However, at the likely prices - I expect Savinova to be around the 1.3030/100-mark - there is little value to be had in backing the Olympic champion to win, so the smart call is to watch the race, raucously booing and hissing each of Savinova's strides.

Men's 200m:
From a marketing point-of-view, the highlight of the night will be Usain Bolt's appearance in, and winning of, the Men's 200m, but unless you had your mortgage on Frankel and are looking to roll your returns on to another sure thing, then there is little to attract punters to the race, as Bolt will start at around 1.051/20.

The Diamond League meeting from Lausanne is live on BBC Three on Thursday from 1900hrs (BST).

Recommendations:
2 points back Kirani James at 1.608/13 in Men's 400m.
1 point back Carmelita Jeter at 2.506/4 in Women's 100m.

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World Athletics Championships Day Seven: Beware or Believe?

Athletics / Jack Houghton / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

You have to hand it to Bolt, but Alonso Edward (left) can make the podium again

"Whatever the rights and wrongs of Bolt’s disqualification in the 100m, he should be able to gain recompense in the 200m."

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of.

Men's 200m - Usain Bolt - BELIEVE
Despite having put Bolt up as a Beware on day one of these championships, I took no pleasure from seeing his disqualification from the final, especially as my own pick, [36.0] shot Nesta Carter, was injured in the same race and finished last. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Bolt's disqualification in the 100m though, he should be able to gain recompense in the 200m. As in the 100m, he has, by his own standards, been lacklustre in the 200m this season, but has still recorded the fastest time of the year so far. This, coupled with the lack of credible opposition - only one other athlete has run sub-20 seconds this year - means Bolt should find his task much easier over the longer sprint distance. There is little value in his odds of [1.11] though. Better bets can be found in the Top 3 market, where rising star Nickel Ashmeade, and returning-from-injury Alonso Edward, can fill the podium with Bolt.

Women's Hammer - Betty Heidler - Beware
Purely on price, it's worth opposing the 2007 world champion Betty Heidler as she bids to regain her title. Although she has dominated competition this season, throwing the four best efforts of the year, including a world record 79.42, she remains vulnerable in major championships, where she has not always produced her best. A number of past champions (think Miankova, Moreno and Wlodarczyk) are coming back from breaks, and both Wenxiu and Lysenko are capable of pushing Heidler close on the day. Not an event to get heavily involved in, but Heidler is definitely worth opposing.

Recommendations:
2pts back Alonso Edwards at [2.50] in men's 200m.
1pt back Nickel Ashmeade at [3.50] in men's 200m.
2pts lay Betty Heidler at [1.36] in women's hammer.

Bob Adams attempts to find the best value from amongst a large group of very large Americans throwing a steel ball, as well as telling us why Belgium can come good in one of the team events....

An Ethiopian with incredible heart (and lungs) and a Russian high-jumper are Bob Adams' two picks for Thursday's action....

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which...

Betfair website

World Athletics Championship Betting: The ball and the baton

Athletics / Bob Adams / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

You wouldn't want to meet Chris Cantwell in a dark alley

"In a bid to find the best value I am going to dutch on Cantwell and Nelson in the win market, but only for small stakes."

Bob Adams attempts to find the best value from amongst a large group of very large Americans throwing a steel ball, as well as telling us why Belgium can come good in one of the team events.

To hurl a ball of steel weighing 7.26kg over 20m takes herculean strength, but every one of the twelve huge finalists in today's men's Shot Put final have managed to do just that, and five of them have regularly thrown over 22m. This makes today's final particularly intriguing and hence the Betfair market has a real open look to it with punters uncertain which way to throw their money.

With the top ten throwers in the world in the startlist, this is going to be one hell of a contest and the grunts and groans are going to be off the scale as the concerted effort to beat off the opposition begins to tell. It's conceivable that the USA could bag all three medals with their four throwers equally capable of pulling out the big one when it matters. Former World Champion Adam Nelson ([27.0]) is a big price considering his pedigree and even though he's approaching the veteran stage, this former college linebacker is no back number and remains a major threat. Current outdoor and indoor World Champion and Olympic silver medallist Christian Cantwell [4.6] is a thrower the others dare not ignore and Cantwell will be itching to retain his title.

Former World Champion Reese Hoffa [8.0] is another candidate with a decent record in major competitions and the final American, Ryan Whiting [19.0] is the young pretender in his first major championships. The US certainly has strength in depth and importantly, a team ethos that will stand them in good stead as the competition begins to hot up.
The main threats to total US domination of the Shot Put competition are going to come from leading qualifier and Commonwealth Champion Dylan Armstrong [5.0] of Canada and European Champion Andrey Mikhnevich [5.2] of Belarus.

Armstrong tops the IAAF rankings for 2011 with Mikhnevich shadowing him all the way and Nelson only a wafer behind the pair. I am going to omit Whiting strictly on the grounds of his lack of experience at this level and it will no doubt be a closely fought contest between the other five. In a bid to find the best value I am going to dutch on Cantwell and Nelson in the win market, but only for small stakes.

The baton change is all important in the 4x400m relay and one fumble or one missed connection can make the difference between triumph and disaster. This was evidenced in the semi-finals when the Japanese quartet, running way above their current world ranking, completely fouled up the second changeover and dropped right back and out of contention. In stark contrast, the US team, almost their 'B' team in fact, were ultra-efficient in winning their semi and it will take a talented team to lower their colours when the 'A' team turns up in today's final.

Undoubtedly Jamaica will pose a threat as they always do in sprint events and South Africa with the Blade Runner Oscar Pistorius nailing their lead leg are another nation with medal aspirations. It will be eyeballs out all the way in this relay final and I feel the US are certain to claim gold. However, I was impressed by the Belgian team in the semis who put a strong Russian quartet in the shade with Kenya and a talented Bahamian team both behind and I'll take the Belgians to podium in the 1-2-3 market.

Recommended Bets:

Back Adam Nelson [27.0] to win today's Shot Put final
Back Christian Cantwell [4.6] to win today's Shot Put final
Back Belgium [2.0] to get on the podium in today's 4 x 400m final

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which...

An Ethiopian with incredible heart (and lungs) and a Russian high-jumper are Bob Adams' two picks for Thursday's action....

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which...

Betfair website