MLB 
/ Nick Shiambouros / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Can Sabathia help NY upset the odds at Fenway?
"Sabathia and Lackey are vulnerable for different reasons and could make costly mistakes."
There are some outstanding fixtures this weekend, featuring some of MLB's best teams. Nick Shiambouros selects bets from three games that you can watch live on ESPN America.
Saturday
New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox
CC Sabathia is on the hill for the Yankees. This lefty has a record of 16-5 and an ERA of just 2.55. Sabathia is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game and is in superb form. His ERA in his last eight starts is a remarkable 1.01. He has an outstanding fastball that works very well with his changeup and slider. Surprisingly, Sabathia has not had a great deal of success against Boston this season. His ERA is a disappointing 6.16 against the hard hitting Red Sox
The Red Sox start John Lackey who has a record of 9-8 and an ERA of 6.23. This veteran has not pitched well this season. He was smashed all over the park against Cleveland on Monday . He gave up five earned runs on eight hits in nearly seven innings. Lackey's winning record is mainly due to the outstanding Boston offense that has got him out of trouble all season long.
These two great teams are locked together at the top of the AL East. They have an identical record of 68-42 and hold a ten game advantage over third placed Tampa Bay. I think the safest option in this game is to back the over total runs market at around [2.0].
Both pitchers are vulnerable for different reasons and could make costly mistakes. In addition the Red Sox have been on fire offensively at Fenway Park this season and are averaging .304 as a team. The Yankees are averaging .261 on the road which represents the third best record in the AL.
Cleveland Indians v Texas Rangers
Fausto Carmona has the pitching assignment for Cleveland. This right-hander has a record of 5-11 and an ERA of 5.31. His numbers do not look pretty but he has not pitched all that badly since returning from injury last month. His main problem is his low strikeout percentage. He only has 68 strikeouts in almost 124 innings which is moderate to say the least.
C.J. Wilson will start for the Rangers. This left-hander has a record of 10-5 and an ERA of 3.37. Wilson has hit a bump in the road in his last two starts and has allowed 10 earned runs in almost nine innings. He is normally a pretty reliable starter who has a decent fastball and an excellent slider in his repertoire.
The Rangers are leading the AL West with a record of 62-50 and are on course for a playoff
berth. Cleveland is in second place in the AL Central with a record of 54-54. My money is on Texas. They are 19-15 against AL Central opponents and their explosive offense has produced 562 runs this year.
I think they should be able to get to Fausto Carmona in the early going and should be backed at around [1.7] in the match odds market.
Sunday
St.Louis Cardinals v Florida Marlins
Jaime Garcia will start for the Cardinals.This left-hander has a record of 10-5 and an ERA of 3.22. Garcia was involved in a wild game against Milwaukee on Tuesday night when he gave up three earned runs and ten hits in a no decision. He also launched a three run homer in the game which St Louis won 8-7.
Javier Vazquez will start for the Marlins. This veteran has a record of 7-9 and an ERA of 4.88. Vazquez has an excellent fastball which has been clocked at 93mph this year. He has pitched very well recently and has lowered his ERA to 2.26 in just under 56 innings.
The Cardinals are in second place in the NL Central with a record of 59-53. They are three games behind Milwaukee who lead the division.
The Marlins are in fourth place in the NL East with a record of 55-56. I believe they can cause an upset in this one. Javier Vazquez is pitching far better than his numbers suggest and his recent ERA of 2.26 is a much better indicator of his chances against this tough St. Louis team. The Marlins are well worth an interest at around [2.2].
Recommended Bets
Saturday: Back the over total runs at [2.0] New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox 1pt
Saturday: Back Texas Rangers in the match odds market at [1.7] 2pts
Sunday: Back Florida Marlins in the match odds market at [2.2] 1pt
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