Michael Vaughan: Why I'm laying the draw in the Second Test

Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Run machine. Jonathan Trott looks set to cash in this time.

"This England team don’t do boring because they’ve become accustomed to playing an aggressive brand of cricket. That’s why they’ve been entertaining to watch since Andy Flower took over."

All the talk is of mountains of runs on a flat pitch but England are rarely involved in draws and there's a great chance we'll get another result. If there are runs to be scored, expect Jonathan Trott to be amongst them, says Michael Vaughan.

A cricket dressing room is a great place to be in when you're winning but a pretty miserable one when you've just been hammered. There will have been plenty of soul-searching amongst the England players as to what went wrong and plenty of work done by analysts and other background staff into why their batting line-up capitulated not once, but twice. No prizes for guessing which Pakistan bowler will have been the subject of the greatest amount of analysis. If England don't play Saeed Ajmal a lot better than they did in the First Test they're in big trouble but hopefully all this fancy technical equipment will help them work out where they went wrong last time.

Chris Tremlett isn't fully fit so will miss out, although I suspect the Surrey paceman wouldn't have played anyway, even if he was 100%. This will be a pretty flat pitch here in Abu Dhabi and that's not really the sort of track where he's dangerous. All the talk has been of Monty Panesar being brought in to help Graeme Swann with spinning duties but I'm not sure that's the way forward. There should be some cracks emerging and a some rough areas to aim at on days four and five but during the first three days you need to put pressure on the batsmen by either generating your own spin or varying the pace at which you're bowling. I'm not sure Monty will be a huge threat in those conditions and I'd actually go with Graham Onions instead.

It's been a while since we last saw the Durham man in action but this may just be his sort of pitch. We know there's unlikely to be much swing assisting the bowlers and the pitch may have just that little bit more bounce than the one in Dubai but there's still not much chance of wickets falling to short-pitched deliveries. And this might just be where Onions comes into the equation, bowling stump-to-stump deliveries. The DRS was prominent in the First Test and if you bowl straight enough on the Abu Dhabi wicket and hit the pads, that may just be the best chance you have of taking wickets.

As regards the batters, Eoin Morgan is probably the only player whose place may be in doubt but dropping him just because Ravi Bopara can bowl would be rash. And this England management team don't do rash.

The Betfair market suggests a draw (2.2) is on the cards. The reason for that is that both of the two matches played here before did end in high-scoring draws. But we should remember that when Pakistan drew with Sri Lanka late last year, the latter needed a double century from the great Kumar Sangakarra to avoid defeat because Pakistan pretty much had them on the ropes.

I'm laying the draw at [2.2]. Over the past few years England have played in all manner of conditions and very rarely do their matches end up in boring draws. OK, so there was the First Test of the 2010/11 Ashes series in Adelaide but (excluding two against Sri Lanka last summer where a huge amount of play was lost to rain) the stalemates have been thrilling draws - Panesar and James Anderson batting out the last few overs at Cardiff, Onions out in South Africa and the West Indies tail (twice in the series) doing the same with just one wicket in hand in the Caribbean, the last time England lost a Test series.

This England team don't do boring because they've become accustomed to playing an aggressive brand of cricket. That's why they've been entertaining to watch since Andy Flower took over. If anything, Pakistan are the more likelier side to go on and win the match for two good reasons: I can't see England scoring 550-plus to put themselves in a wining position and Pakistan (3.8) look better suited to taking 20 wickets on this pitch. But England are capable of winning because they've developed that sort of winning habit so I'd rather cover both bases by laying the draw than just backing Pakistan.

For England first innings top batsman honours, it has to be Jonathan Trott. He looked really good in the second innings and was picking Ajmal before getting out to an uncharacteristically careless shot off the bowling of Umar Gul. That was just a lapse in concentration because I think Trott was on for a big score and he's worth backing at [5.0] to build on a good start and pile on the runs.

My last tip for the match is that a bowler will take five wickets in an innings. Ajmal took seven in the first innings of the First Test and both Gul and Graeme Swann took four so there's a good chance that it will happen again. Ajmal is the most likely player to do it but there are plenty of others who can get on a roll and with the wicket likely to get considerably worse on days four and five, there's a good chance for someone to really cash in.

3 pts lay the draw at [2.2].
2 pts Back Jonathan Trott to be England first innings top batsman @ [5.0]
2 pts Back a bowler to take five wickets in an innings @ [1.7]

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Michael Vaughan's £500 Run Chase!

Our cricket ambassador is challenging you to predict how many runs will be scored on each day's play during England's Test match against Pakistan. In return we are offering the opportunity for you to win £500 cash (or a share of it). See full details here.

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I'm A Celeb Betting: Rock a solid eviction wager

I'm a Celebrity / Alan Dudman / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

The smiles might be replaced with tears tonight for Crissy Rock

"It's all about the air time, Rock's had about two minutes, whereas Wright is getting air miles. If Monday night's show is just as free of Crissy, then it's worth another go on her for eviction at around [3.0]."

The camera does not love Crissy Rock on IACGMOOH 2011 and that lack of air time makes her a good bet to leave the camp on Monday night, says Alan Dudman

The jungle is minus three more (well two without Tedward), as Pat Sharp and also Lorraine Chase headed to the five-star hotel to lick their wounds on Sunday. The 80s DJ only has himself to blame after his shock tactics with the teddy bear badly backfired - that and being the cheesiest person on the planet. Chase on the other hand was too nice, apart from when she told Sharp to 'sod off'.

Two more down, eight to go.

The Friday and Saturday shows were dominated by the jungle royalty task, in which Willie Carson was the ruling prince. We also had the knights of the round table, in which Dougie delivered a stirring speech. Any kind of communication is good from the rocker, who has been a modern day Harold Lloyd film. The McFly man is steady at around [7.0], although it's a slight drift from his price last week.

Antony is still whining over the cooking as he toiled over his wallaby stew. Sunday's chef duties went to Fatima Whitbread, which
immediately put the Corrie's star nose out of joint. He's lucky it wasn't a right hander, as the javelin thrower is one of the hardest competitors in camp.

She brushed aside Pat with ease in the trial, a success which kept her in the show. There has been a move on the Olympian, who has been cut into about [2.25] for top female. Her winner's price however is huge - at [27.0]. But for the tasks, she is unbeatable.

Sunday's show was fairly quiet on Mark Wright front, until yet another of his celebrity chests, and by bizarre coincidence with Emily, the potential romance. Backers of the TOWIE stud are now in a position of power, with a seismic shift
into [1.68] to win it. He is red-hot in the market, and [1.5] for top male. He is ticking all the boxes, missing his mum, great editing, romance, more great editing, torso shots, low IQ and phobia now conquered. Check, check, check and check. The future TV show is looking more and more realistic.

The next elimination has surely got to involve Crissy Rock who might have gone over the weekend. To say she hardly featured in the three hours of programming on Saturday and Sunday was an understatement. In fact, last year's winner Stacey Solomon was more visible, and she's in the adverts.

It's all about the air time, Rock's had about two minutes, whereas Wright is getting air miles. If Monday night's show is just as free of Crissy, then it's worth another go on her for eviction at around [3.0]. Emily is still vulnerable, but will this
potential romance keep her in? A price around [3.5] will be interesting for the Aussie.

Recommended Bets
Split stakes back on Crissy @ [3.0] and Emily [2.9] in fifth elimination.
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Already Advised
Back Antony Cotton in winner market @ [4.6]
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Back to lay Fatima Whitbread @ [16.0]

Saturday's elimination looks a tough one to call but Alan Dudman does his best to decipher who's most likely to get the chop. Let's just say it might be no laughing matter for a particular female contestant......

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Michael Vaughan: Broad lifeline means I'm backing England

England Cricket / Michael Vaughan / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Broad celebrates his hat-trick

"Strauss might have thought England were out of it as Yuvraj and Dravid looked set to pile on the runs. However, after Broad's superb hat-trick, the hosts will be feeling buoyant."

Stuart Broad was the star on day two once again - this time with the ball - and ex-England skipper Michael Vaughan is convinced that England can now go on and triumph...

At the end of a great day at Trent Bridge, England's will be the happier dressing room. The Betfair markets may disagree but I'm sticking with the home team to win the second Test.

They've been given a lifeline by Stuart Broad. On day one, he turned England's fortunes around with a superb innings of 64 and, on day two, he changed the course of the game again with Test best bowling figures of 6 for 46. In the space of a fortnight, he's turned his own form around too and now looks far more at ease with himself.

You can back England at [2.78] to win the match, with India [1.87] and an unlikely draw at [9.0]. India may have scored the bigger first innings total and England would have liked to have ended the day with all wickets intact but they are playing with momentum and conviction. They could win the match on day three but a fourth day is more likely and I still see them winning in Monday's final session at [3.55].

Two hours before the close of play, I feared for England and Andrew Strauss might have thought his team were out of it as Yuvraj Singh and Rahul Dravid looked set to pile on the runs. However, after Broad's superb hat-trick, England will be feeling buoyant.

It's now up to the batsman to make the most of the platform that Broad has give them. Jonathan Trott's injury is a big blow - he's going to be sore and will probably not be able to do much more than come in and block - but England must bat 90 overs. If they can do that they will win this match. They should look to make around 270 on Sunday and then let the attack go all out at India on Monday.

So who will get the runs? Ian Bell may relish his chance to perform at number three and Strauss could do with a captain's innings. However, I have a feeling that someone further down the order could come in and succeed with a bold, aggressive innings, similar to the way Broad did on day one. I won't back the Nottinghamshire man though; instead, I'll have a bet on Any Other Batsman at [3.9] because I can see Matt Prior coming in and smashing it.

After that it will be down to England's bowlers. Dravid and Yuvraj showed their class on Saturday but the Indian tail is woefully long, as Broad demonstrated. Mahendra Dhoni is out of sorts with the bat and the gloves and the tourists are lacking leadership. The pitch is a bit of a gremlin too and the bounce is working in England's favour. Put simply, India don't like it and I can't see things improving for them. Game on, England.

Recommended Bets
Back England @ [2.46] 3pts
Back Day Four Evening @ [2.7] in the Test Match End Market 2pts
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Another thrilling day's cricket draws to a close with India on top, but only just. Andrew Hughes has the details of Saturday's play and looks ahead to tomorrow.

It was hard to take your eye off the action on a dramatic opening day to this Second Test. Andrew Hughes brings us up to date with Friday's events and looks ahead to Saturday's action.

The momentum is with England after Monday evening's events and they can go 2-0 when we head to Nottingham, where conditions will assist the bowlers and mean the match is unlikely to go the distance....

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