Champions League 
/ James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Cristiano Ronaldo will be almost impossible to stop in Cyprus
"Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season’s competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition."
APOEL v Real Madrid, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4, Match Odds: APOEL [14.5], Real Madrid [1.31], The Draw [5.8].
How do you gauge the chances of a side that have no pedigree in a tournament and are the first representatives to make it this far I the competition?
That's the situation bettors are in as Cypriots APOEL prepare to host Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg in Nicosia on Tuesday night. The absence of virtually any meaningful historic data on the home side makes this a one-off among the last-eight ties, although stats and facts from their unexpectedly successful run in the competition this season suggests their chances of causing an upset are minimal.
Opta stats reveal APOEL have got this far despite winning only three of eight games in the tournament so far. Those victories came over Zenit (2-1), FC Porto (2-1) and Lyon (1-0), all significantly below the standard of the side they face this week. APOEL knocked out Lyon in the last 16 on penalties after a 1-1 draw over the two legs. The low-scoring nature of that tie was no fluke - APOEL have netted just once in their last four Champions League games.
It's impossible to see how they can stop Real Madrid, [3.6] second favourites behind Barcelona to lift the trophy in Munich on May 19. Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season's competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition.
The [1.31] on a Real victory will be too short for most bettors, so it's best to look for alternatives. Real-Real on the Half time/Full time market is [1.85], although various goals markets are a better fit with the stats above. Real to win to nil is a tempting [2.0], with Real -1.5 Asian handicap [1.79]. With this bet, you'll make a profit if Real win by two goals or more.
The only market where APOEL are worth supporting is the bookings market. With 125 fouls made and 24 yellow cards earned, they have the worst disciplinary record in this season's competition. When there's liquidity in the market, look to back APOEL to pick up more cards than Real.
Best Bet: Real Madrid to win to nil at [2.0].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -1.5 Asian handicap @ [1.79].
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