APOEL v Real Madrid: Rookies to crumble against Mourinho's men

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo will be almost impossible to stop in Cyprus

"Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season’s competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition."

APOEL v Real Madrid, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4, Match Odds: APOEL [14.5], Real Madrid [1.31], The Draw [5.8].

How do you gauge the chances of a side that have no pedigree in a tournament and are the first representatives to make it this far I the competition?

That's the situation bettors are in as Cypriots APOEL prepare to host Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg in Nicosia on Tuesday night. The absence of virtually any meaningful historic data on the home side makes this a one-off among the last-eight ties, although stats and facts from their unexpectedly successful run in the competition this season suggests their chances of causing an upset are minimal.

Opta stats reveal APOEL have got this far despite winning only three of eight games in the tournament so far. Those victories came over Zenit (2-1), FC Porto (2-1) and Lyon (1-0), all significantly below the standard of the side they face this week. APOEL knocked out Lyon in the last 16 on penalties after a 1-1 draw over the two legs. The low-scoring nature of that tie was no fluke - APOEL have netted just once in their last four Champions League games.

It's impossible to see how they can stop Real Madrid, [3.6] second favourites behind Barcelona to lift the trophy in Munich on May 19. Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season's competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition.

The [1.31] on a Real victory will be too short for most bettors, so it's best to look for alternatives. Real-Real on the Half time/Full time market is [1.85], although various goals markets are a better fit with the stats above. Real to win to nil is a tempting [2.0], with Real -1.5 Asian handicap [1.79]. With this bet, you'll make a profit if Real win by two goals or more.

The only market where APOEL are worth supporting is the bookings market. With 125 fouls made and 24 yellow cards earned, they have the worst disciplinary record in this season's competition. When there's liquidity in the market, look to back APOEL to pick up more cards than Real.

Best Bet: Real Madrid to win to nil at [2.0].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -1.5 Asian handicap @ [1.79].

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La Liga Betting: Mourinho's tactical conundrum

Spanish Football / Michael Cox / 25 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fabio Coentrao's energy and pace is an asset to to Real's midfield but Jose mourinho has concerns in other areas

"In truth, they’re crying out for Nuri Sahin in the centre of the pitch. The Turk was signed from Borussia Dortmund in the summer, essentially to be a more forward-thinking partner for Alonso, whilst also bringing energy and defensive discipline to the role."

By their own incredibly high standards, Real Madrid's start to their La Liga campaign has been an average one and at the heart of their troubles is a failure to pick a system that allows them to break down teams who are too defensive against them, says Michael Cox.

A defeat and a draw in two games for Real Madrid. Far from a disaster - or is it? Real have now dropped as many points this season as Barcelona did up until February 12 last season. The race for the Spanish title is particularly unforgiving, though there are promising early signs that La Liga will be more even than last year.

Having started the season with ten goals in two games, Real's obvious failing against Levante and Racing was their inability to score. Mourinho rotated his side for these two matches and played such different starting XIs that it's difficult to come to any sweeping generalisations, especially given their goalfest in the opening two games, but the side seems to lack creativity. They managed just three shots on target against Levante, and two against Racing.

Particularly noticeable was how slowly Real moved the ball in the centre of the pitch, a huge surprise considering they'd seemingly improved on this area of their game immeasurably when they faced Barca in the European Super Cup. Xabi Alonso has played deep in midfield but his long-range diagonal balls are less effective against sides who defend deep, with their full-backs in defensive positions at all times.

His partners in the past two games have hardly covered themselves in glory either - Sami Khedira got himself sent off against Levante and was blamed for the defeat by Mourinho, whilst Lassana Diarra is simply not the type of midfielder you need to break down opponents. The energy of Fabio Coentrao, used in the centre of midfield in the first two games, suited Real better.

In truth, they're crying out for Nuri Sahin in the centre of the pitch. The Turk was signed from Borussia Dortmund in the summer, essentially to be a more forward-thinking partner for Alonso, whilst also bringing energy and defensive discipline to the role. Real basically need a good technical player who can link Alonso with the front four, and interestingly, this is a position Mourinho has struggled with before. He had Claude Makelele playing deep and Frank Lampard breaking forward at Chelsea, but couldn't decide between Tiago, Alexi Smertin, Jiri Jarosik and Joe Cole to complete his trio in his first season - the signing of Michael Essien solved the problem there. Maybe Sahin will do the same.

The slowness of the passing is harming Mesut Ozil, Real's chief creator and producer of more assists than any other La Liga player in 2010/11. Ozil is talented enough to break down packed defences, but thrives on the break - the slower the ball finds him, the more opportunity for the opposition to get their defence in shape. Similar things can be said of Cristiano Ronaldo, Angel Di Maria and arguably Karim Benzema too - they like to break quickly, and get space in behind.

Pep Guardiola described Real as 'the best counter-attacking side in the world' last season, but the problem with counter-attacking is that you need the opposition to attack first. Scared into parking the bus by Real's array of attacking stars, the rest of La Liga might have wised up and sat back.

What can Mourinho do to change things, aside from waiting on Sahin? In formation terms, he experimented with both a 4-3-3 and a 4-3-1-2 last season, but it's difficult to see how either of these shapes would help Real. He could choose to field Ozil wide in place of Di Maria, in order to play Kaka in the centre of the 4-2-3-1, therefore bringing an extra creator into the side. Kaka and Ozil are possibly too similar, though - and Kaka generally relied on quick attacks at Milan, too. Add in doubts about his lack of pace, and it's hardly a solution.

The midfield is not entirely to blame - the defenders are often slow to bring the ball out from the back, and the answer probably lies in improving the performance of his current XI on the training ground. Mourinho loves to chop and change formations, but the issue with his side concerns what they do on the ball, not how they are positioned.

At [6.0] Real remain a good price to win the Champions League - they should win the group with ease, and their style of football will probably more suited to knock-out competitions than La Liga.

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