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March 9, 2013
Cross-Sport Multiple: Saints to steal a point
"With both teams anxious not to lose to a relegation rival, a draw is the likeliest outcome here."
Andrew Hughes thinks Southampton can hold Norwich to a draw and help land a Saturday cross-sport multiple in the process.
Betfair now gives you the facility to mix and match your multiples across a huge range of sports and markets with the easy-to-use betslip and so each weekend I've been putting together a cross-sport treble with the aim of showing the way to maximise your profits.
Bet 1: Back Norwich to draw with Southampton at 3.259/4
Five points separate these teams in the Premier League table, and neither are safe from relegation. Norwich have games against three of the bottom four to come, so have plenty of opportunities, but Southampton are in a precarious position. Defeat to QPR last time was a setback, and with their next two fixtures against Chelsea and Liverpool, they could easily slip into the bottom three by Easter.
On the plus side, their recent away form isn't too bad, including a victory at Aston Villa, a draw at Chelsea and a creditable 2-1 defeat at Old Trafford. They've also drawn four of their last seven games away from St Mary's.
Norwich's home record is pretty good too, with their only defeats in the Premier League coming against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City, although they have drawn three of the last four at home. With both teams anxious not to lose to a relegation rival, a draw is the likeliest outcome here.
Bet 2: Back Wales to beat Scotland at 1.444/9
Scotland have surprised a few people in this year's Six Nations campaign. They outplayed traditional wooden spoon rivals Italy at Murrayfield in their second game, then came up with a titanic defensive performance to deny Ireland last time.
But they won't be making it three out of three on Saturday. The Welsh got off to a slow start in their opener against the Irish, but they fought back well in the second half, then carried that determination over to their next fixtures, in Paris and Rome. Their victories over France and Italy were not pretty, but they have restored confidence, and have even given Wales an outside chance of retaining their title.
Scotland will defend as though their lives depended on it, but Wales have enough creativity to find a way through, and their back row can cause havoc amongst a Scottish side that has sometimes looked disorganised at the breakdown.
Bet 3: Back Rigadin De Beauchene in the Sandown 2:40 at 3.02/1
This three mile handicap chase is a modest affair and offers a good opportunity for Rigadin De Beauchene to pick up his second race of 2013.
Venetia Williams' eight-year-old has improved significantly in his second season over fences, winning a Grade Three at Warwick in January, and finishing second in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month. He obviously stays further than this three miles, but the soft going will be in his favour.
On paper, his main rival appears to be the Paul Nicholls entry There's No Panic, but he hasn't been that impressive this season and may be better going left-handed. Soll is dropping back in class and could be a threat, but he had a hard race in the Welsh National and was beaten a long way. Back Rigadin De Beauchene to prevail.
Total Odds for this multiple: 14.04n/a Remember, multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
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September 13, 2012
Opta Stats: Stingy Arsenal to deny Saints a look in
"Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their opening three league games for the first time since 1924/25."
Recommended Bet: Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 1.84/5
Arsenal have started the season in miserly fashion and look set to make it another tough day for newly promoted Southampton...
Arsenal v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00)
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their opening three league games for the first time since 1924/25
It's no coincidence that Steve Bould's appointment as Arsene Wenger's assistant has resulted in a far more rigid back line than was evident at the Emirates last season. This new found steeliness has seen the Gunners reduce opposition shots on target to just seven - the joint best in the Premier League this season. In stark contrast Southampton have allowed the most shots on the mark at 19.
More Stats
Norwich City v West Ham United (Saturday, 12:45)
West Ham have won none of their last 14 league trips to Carrow Road (W0 D6 L8).
West Ham have started their first season back in the Premier League assuredly, racking up six points from a possible nine but sandwiched between these victories was an away day reality check courtesy of a 3-0 demolition by Swansea. A visit to Norfolk is clearly not a trip the Irons have traditionally relished either and it will be difficult to beat Norwich who have only lost one of their last five.
More stats
Fulham v West Bromwich Albion (Saturday, 15:00)
The Whites have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League games at Craven Cottage (W8 D2 L1)
Fulham's snug west London confines are a difficult place for Premier League teams to pick up their points. Martin Jol's side embarrassed Norwich 5-0 in their opening contest of the league season at the Cottage and will be relishing the chance to get back in front of their faithful after three games away. History denotes this fixture to be a heavily one-sided contest with Fulham winning eight from 13, without tasting defeat.
More Stats
Everton v Newcastle United (Monday, 20:00)
Newcastle have lost three of their last four Premier League away games, but haven't drawn any of their last 13 on the road
A shock defeat at West Brom aside Everton have peeled off their label as the Premier League's worst starters in 2012/13. Toffees fans have already been treated to a home win over Man United, their sixth in a row at Goodison in the league - allowing just the one goal to be scored in that sequence. Everton enjoy a Geordie visit too as last season's 3-1 hammering of Newcastle was their fifth win in seven games at home to the Magpies.
More Stats
Recommended Bets:
Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 1.84/5
Back Norwich and West Ham to draw @ 3.55/2
Back Fulham to win @ 2.111/10
Back Everton to win @ 1.845/6
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August 18, 2012
Lee Dixon: Manchester City will be too good for Saints
Newly promoted Southampton face possibly their toughest match of the season when they go to the Etihad on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon explains why he expects Manchester City to start with a comfortable win...
Running out at home as champions for the first match of a new campaign is a fantastic feeling. There's a buzz around the stadium and the wind is well and truly in your sails. You've got a new kit on and new team-mates to link up with. On top of all that, the sun is often shining.
You can't rest of your laurels though, there can be no basking in former glories because football moves fast and the importance of a good start in the Premier League should never be underestimated. Having won title in the most dramatic circumstances last season, Manchester City must now aim to dominate and cement their place at the top of English football.
It's been an unexpectedly quiet summer at Eastlands. I thought they would bring in players and I think Roberto Mancini did too. Inquiries were made about Daniel Agger, a player I rate, but he isn't making the move and I do think City need a centre-back.
Southampton also have a glow about them. They were very unlucky not to win the Championship but they return to the top flight on the back of consecutive promotions. Manager Nigel Adkins' will need all his nous and resilience if Saints are to take anything from this one and it will be interesting to see how talented youngsters Jay Rodriguez and Nathaniel Clyne fare against top opposition. Over all, I reckon they can stay up this season.
Half-time/Full-time
Not that I think they can take anything from this one. In one sense, it's bad luck, beginning your return to the Premier League with a trip to the champions, but at least they're getting it out of the way early and if Saints could take a point from this it would be a massive boost.
City will be too good. They looked sharp in the Community Shield, we all know that in Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko they have the most devastating attackers in the Premier League, but Mancini's new 3-4-1-2 formation is intriguing. It liberates the full-backs and could allow Pablo Zabaleta and Micah Richards new attacking impetus.
Everybody knows that City came within minutes of losing to QPR on the last day of the 2011/12 season but the fact remains they only dropped two points at Eastland in the entire campaign. They won't yield any against Saints and I'll be backing them to be up at the break and at full-time.
City to win to nil
Opta tell me that City scored the highest percentage of second-half goals of in the Premier League in 2011/12 so I think they could be a goal up at half-time before adding one or two in the second-half. They were the division's top scorers and Southampton hit the most goals in the Championship. Despite my feeling that City aren't the finished article at the back, I expect the champions to kick off with a win to nil.
Recommended Bets
Back Manchester City/Manchester City @ 1.674/6
Back Manchester City to win to nil @ 1.68/13
This is a similar introduction for City as last season, when they started their opening game slowly against before eventually demolishing the newly promoted side 4-0.
I can see a similar fixture here – will probably defend resiliently in their first fixture back in the Premier League, but eventually City’s wealth of options and superior fitness levels will prove too much.
Backing ‘Any Unquoted’ in the Correct Scores market at [3.55] covers City scoring four goals or more. This shouldn't be seen as an indictment of though - as demonstrated last season, a tonking by City doesn’t necessarily mean a season of struggle.
I agree with Lee on the Half/Time full time bet but at [1.67] it's a bit on the short side for me. However, when this market is as short as this I often look into the half-time markets to see if I can manufacture a price from the correct scores.
Looking back at last season only failed to keep a clean sheet at half time on one occasion (v who scored twice) and they were 1-0 or 2-0 up at the break on 12 of the other 18 home games.
I agree with Lee, that a win-to-nil is likely, so I'll be placing a 'dutch' bet on 1-0 & 2-0 at half-time, a combined price of around [2.0]. I'm prepared risk of City getting three or more first-half goals for the better price - remember that, of the 67 goals scored at the City of Manchester stadium last season, 48 came in the second half.
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April 12, 2012
Southampton v Reading: Saints to shade top of the table clash
/ Richard / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment
Rickie Lambert has notched 26 league goals and opened the scoring on 14 separate occasions
"Reading need just seven points from their last four to guarantee a spot in next season’s Premier League."
These two are leading the charge to the top flight and Friday night's meeting should see Southampton take a giant stride towards being crowned champions...
Southampton v Reading, Friday 19:45, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Southampton [2.36], Reading [3.35], The Draw [3.45]
The Saints have long been involved in a two-horse race for the title, with the subtle difference that it is now Reading rather than West Ham who are mounting the challenge.
The pair are tied on 82 points and though automatic promotion is undoubtedly the main prize, both will be gunning to finish top of the pile. The Saints, who have led for much of the way, are [1.87] to go up as champions, while Reading are currently [2.18] to overhaul them.
A spectacular run of 13 wins in 15 fixtures has seen the Royals into second and they need just seven points from their last four to guarantee their spot in next season's Premier League.
But they will have their work cut out to take anything from a trip to the south coast, where Nigel Adkins' side have lost just twice in the Championship all season. The Saints have won four and lost none of their previous seven league fixtures at St Mary's.
And while Brian McDermott's side are certainly no soft touch on their travels, they have shown signs of vulnerability away from home in recent weeks. Reading were held to a draw at Doncaster, before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat at London Road. But normal service has since been resumed, with hard-fought wins at fellow promotion chasers West Ham and latterly Brighton.
Eight of Southampton's previous ten league fixtures at St Mary's have produced fewer than three goals, seven featuring exactly two. Meanwhile, Reading's last two contests have contained a total of just three goals.
To score
In Rickie Lambert and Billy Sharp, Southampton possess the league's most potent strike force. The pair have 41 league goals between them and have netted nine in the Saints' last six clashes. The Championship's player of the year will be available at around [2.42] to score at any time, with Sharp at [3.05].
Best Bet: Southampton to win @ [2.36]
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.92]
Reading have been the outstanding form side in the Championship says Hannah Duncan, with their latest victory moving them level on points with Southampton, three days before the clubs clash in a huge Friday night encounter....
West Ham's home form is a huge cause for concern, and they'll do really well to turn it around against an in-form Birmingham side says Mike Norman....
It's all about momentum at this stage of the season, and Reading have it says Andrew French as the Royals look to cement their promotion push by beating inconsistent Leeds....
February 24, 2011
Super League Betting: Can Kyle handle the pressure and keep Saints marching on?
Super League
/ Ralph Ellis / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment
Will Eastmond's dilemma jeopardise St Helens' form?
"It’s a lot easier to make promises than to deliver on the pitch and Friday’s meeting with Warrington Wolves will be an acid test for Eastmond."
Kyle Eastmond has both codes of rugby at his feet - or his hands - so will he switch to union or stick with league? Ralph Ellis wonders if the youngster might struggle with the pressure in the mean-time.
Kyle Eastmond is a wanted man. St Helens are throwing money at him to try to persuade him to stay. Bath are offering him riches to convert to rugby union. Sale are bidding big bucks too and also dangling the carrot that he can continue to leave in the North West.
Two weeks into a new Super League season and it looks as if the future of the superbly talented scrum half could turn into one of those sporting sagas that drags on. Will he leave, won't he leave? If he does where will he go? Can he convert from one code to another or will he, like Sam Tomkins, come crawling back with his tail between his legs? And meanwhile at the tender age of 21, Eastmond himself has got to put all those issues aside and go on playing until the end of this season before his current Saints deal runs out.
That won't be easy. There are always deep suspicions, in any sport, about players who are running down their contract. Fans hate the thought of paying to watch somebody whose loyalties already lie elsewhere. I remember watching a puzzled Steve McManaman trying to understand why Liverpool fans turned against him in the last few months of his final season at Anfield. He tried to leave the honest way, making public that he'd organised a move to Real Madrid. And still he was made the scapegoat for Gerard Houllier's first miserable season.
Already there are signs that Eastmond might have to face the same sort of flak. Look at the fans' forums and many of them singled him out for St Helens' poor first half in their Millenium meeting with Wigan. Never mind his part in a great comeback, he was already being cast as the villain. He didn't get too much credit for his two try role in helping thrash Salford last Friday night either.
It all adds to the pressure on a player who, for all his talent, is still only a kid with barely two seasons experience behind him. And you worry that it will start to take its toll.
Eastmond is saying all the right things. Saints coach Royce Simmons reveals today: "If he does end up leaving he's told me he'll be focused on doing everything for Saints while he's here." But it's a lot easier to make promises than to deliver on the pitch and Friday's meeting with Warrington Wolves - the club's first game in their temporary Widnes home - will be an acid test.
Saints are [1.51] in the early market for the live Sky game and that's far too short. They will be without injured Great Britain star Leon Pryce and youngster Sean Magennis is also missing after hurting his wrist during his dazzling display of promise against Salford. Watch the market develop and if you can lay them at anywhere around [1.8] then dive in.
Five things you might not know about Kyle Eastmond
1. Born July 1989 in Oldham, he went to school at the local comprehensive The Radclyffe School, and credits his mum with inspiring his rugby career by making sure he always got to training nights after joining St Helens aged 13.
2. He still lives in Oldham - he bought his first house in January 2009 when he moved out of mum and dad's place
3. He was the star of St Helens Academy, playing in two Academy Grand finals and then two reserve Grand Finals
4. In his first season in Super League, 2009, he scored all of Saints ten points in their Grand Final defeat by Leeds
5. He is a cousin of Arsenal midfielder Craig Eastmond, currently on loan at Millwall
Kyle Eastmond has both codes of rugby at his feet - or his hands - so will he switch to union or stick with league? Ralph Ellis wonders if the youngster might struggle with the pressure in the mean-time....
Stuart Jones selects the best bets as the Super League gets down to business in week two. Look out for a Rhino's comeback on Friday and watch the Giants chase victory on Saturday......
Betting.Betfair's new rugby league correspondent Stuart Jones believes that his predecessor's team will be very diificult to stop this season. Here's his best bets for the opening weekend's action......
February 9, 2011
Super League Betting: Life after Cunningham for Saints?
Super League
/ Ralph Ellis / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment
Is James Roby an adequate replacement for Kieron Cunningham?
"Cunningham will be missed as much for his influence on the dressing room as for his ability on the field."
As Super League fans prepare for the big kick off this weekend, Ralph Ellis considers how St Helens will adjust to the retirement of their talisman.
No player is bigger than a club. When any of the legends eventually have to hang up their boots as old age and creaking muscles take their toll, the club always carries on. But there are some whose influence is so talismanic that it takes time for the vacuum they leave behind to be filled.
Think of Alan Shearer leaving Newcastle; or Lawrence Dallaglio ending his playing days at Wasps. In cricket, and okay we are talking a few years back, it took Somerset maybe a decade to regroup from the departure of Viv Richards and Ian Botham.
So as a new Super League season comes along with all the razzamatazz of an opening weekend of "Millenium Magic", maybe the biggest question will be to see what effect the retirement of Keiron Cunningham will have on St Helens.
On the face of it, the answer should be that it won't be much. Hooker James Roby has been his understudy for enough years to slot seamlessly into the side, and the rest of the group are pretty much the same players who reached last seaon's Grand Final but just came up short against Wigan on the day.
But the reality is that Cunningham will be missed as much for his influence on the dressing room as for his ability on the field. Suddenly when St Helens are in a tight corner their players won't have the figure of the gnarly old veteran forward to come up with some inspiration.
Saints new coach Royce Simmons has already given a clue to his thinking on the lack of one big leader by appointing two captains, with duties to be shared between veteran full-back Paul Wellens and prop forward James Graham. And Wellens himself has this morning unwittingly underlined the empty space that Cunningham has left behind.
He was giving an interview, trying to talk about the quality of the current squad, but instead couldn't help discussing how much his former team mate will be missed. "Keiron is kind of irreplaceable," he said. "He could always come up with the big play when it mattered."
Cunningham has stayed on the coaching staff, but as a player it was always his deeds that were far more inspirational than his words. He'll need a year or two to learn how to be an effective coach, while Saints will need as long for a new on-field leader to emerge.
All of which is a good reason to lay St Helens for this season's Grand Final while they are as short as being the [4.5] favourites. Don't get me wrong. Given a season to get over the loss of Cunningham, they will almost certainly work their way into the play-offs, and might even arrive for their third Grand Final in as many seasons. But the road will be rocky on the way and there will unquestionably be an opportunity to turn the market green and wait to collect your winnings.
Five things you might not know about James Roby
1. Born November 1985 in Whiston, Merseyside, he was keen on languages at school and studied French and German at Cowley Language College
2. He started a Sports Science degree at Liverpool John Moores University but dropped out to join St Helens full time
3. He scored the first try ever at the new Wembley Stadium when he went over in St Helens victory over Catalans Dragons in the 2007 Challenge Cup final.
4. That season he also became the youngest player ever to win the Man of Steel award
5. He suffered some family drama when his little boy was born six weeks prematurely, but all is well now. Little Ollie is three years old and full of health.