Handicappers' Corner: Ballabriggs fit for National service now?

Timeform Debate / Phil Turner / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ballabriggs returned at Kelso

"Bar an uncharacteristic blunder at the eleventh, Ballabriggs both travelled and jumped with typical fluency..."

Although racing has entered its usual quiet storm before next week's Cheltenham Festival, several leading Grand National hopefuls have been flexing their muscles in recent days, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner casts his eye over the latest picture for the Aintree showpiece....

Chief amongst those seen out last weekend was, of course, the 2011 hero Ballabriggs (Timeform rating c159), who again warmed up for Aintree by tackling the Kelso Premier Chase over two and three-quarter miles on Saturday. Although Ballabriggs finished two places worse off than when runner-up in the 2011 renewal, his fourth to Master of The Hall (c155) actually represents the same form he'd shown on that final prep run prior to Aintree glory.

Indeed, trainer Donald McCain reported himself happy with the comeback run and understandably so, given the gelding ultimately shaped as if the outing was just needed. Bar an uncharacteristic blunder at the eleventh, Ballabriggs both travelled and jumped with typical fluency before edging ahead on the long run-in until his lack of a recent run told late on. He'll clearly come on for the outing, though the fact remains that he's been allotted a stiff task by the BHA handicapper in his bid to become the first back-to-back National winner since Red Rum in 1974 and, as such, others make more appeal in the ante-post market.

Similar comments apply to Kelso runner-up According To Pete (c148), who stuck to his task well over an inadequate trip on Saturday but still looks plenty high enough in the weights now following earlier heroics this winter. Third-placed Abbeybraney (c137) also holds a Grand National entry, but he'll struggle to get a run in the big race (currently 9 lb out of the weights), whilst there must be a chance he'll prove slightly flattered by his Kelso effort.

Elsewhere on Saturday, long-standing National fancy Junior (c158) was in action in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which was also the prep race that the McCain stable used for Amberleigh House prior to his 2004 Aintree victory. Junior certainly shaped a good deal more convincingly than on his comeback run over hurdles, failing by just a short head to defeat the well-treated Ikorodu Road (c136) having been hampered slightly by last-fence faller Pentiffic (c132), which shows he's clearly not handicapped out of things off a 19 lb higher mark than when running out a wide-margin winner of last season's Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival.

Although there were plenty of positives to be gleaned from a form viewpoint after Saturday's narrow second, the fact Junior had a harder race than ideal tempers enthusiasm for his Aintree prospects somewhat, whilst his tendency to neither travel or jump with complete fluency would also be a concern with regards to a well-run National.

The latter point certainly isn't an issue with Niche Market (c151), who cut a bold sight up with the pace when finishing a gallant fifth in the 2011 edition of the Aintree showpiece, whilst he also shaped well over those unique fences when runner-up to West End Rocker (who missed the Grimthorpe due to ground concerns) in the Becher Chase there in early-December. Admittedly, the eleven-year-old Niche Market is still without a win since the 2009 Irish National, but he's crept back down to an attractive mark and emerged with plenty of credit when runner-up to the lightly-weighted Marufo (c129) in a veterans' event at Newbury on Saturday, particularly as the pair pulled 24 lengths clear of the remainder.

Niche Market seems sure to give his supporters another good run for their money at Aintree but, in truth, he still looks up against it at the weights in relation to Prince de Beauchene (c164), who heads our ratings by some margin on the back of his impressive return to action in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse late last month.

Adjusted Timeform ratings for Grand National:

Prince de Beauchene 193
Weird Al 184
Niche Market 181
Burton Port 180
Quantitativeeasing 180
Giles Cross 178
Neptune Collonges 178
Hold On Julio 177p
Cappa Bleu 177+
Junior 177
Massini's Maguire 177
Scotsirish 177
Synchronised 177
Seabass 176
Treacle 176
(Selected others: According To Pete 171, Ballabriggs 171 and West End Rocker 171)

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Grand National Betting: Bay called up for National Service

Grand National Betting / Timeform / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Calgary Bay has now won his last two starts

"Dominic Elsworth gave Calgary Bay a brilliantly judged waiting ride to land the spoils..."

Henrietta Knight is to give Calgary Bay another tilt at the John Smith's Grand National after the nine-year-old put up a creditable weight-carrying performance in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster...

Knight had felt 11st 11lb might prevent Calgary Bay ([15.0]) from taking this competitive handicap chase, but she was pleased to be proved wrong.

And it is now straight to the National, a race in which he departed early last April but is available to back in this year's reneway at odds of ([30.0]).

Dominic Elsworth gave Calgary Bay a brilliantly judged waiting ride to land the spoils.

Held up at the rear of the field, the Yorkshire-born jockey brought Calgary Bay into the race steadily to make his challenge at the second last.

Fruity O'Rooney ([30.0]) had led the field and still had every chance when Jamie Moore's saddle slipped at that crucial stage.

Shakalakaboomboom ([7.4]) was left in front, but Calgary Bay soon went on to score by two and a half lengths.

"With that big weight he had to patient with him. He likes it here and won his first chase on this track," said Knight.

"The Grand National is the aim and I think he'll go straight to Aintree now.

"We always wondered if he really stays three miles, but he has always loves this track and he was going to run in this race last year but it was called off.

"I looked at all the last winners and nothing had won with that weight."

Nicky Henderson hopes Shakalakaboomboom has done enough to guarantee his place in the National line-up and he is currently available to back at ([23.0]).

"His rating of 144 could be enough. If the handicapper gave us another 2lb I wouldn't mind and what I would probably do is let him canter round in a novice hurdle as he's still a novice," said the Seven Barrows trainer.

"He jumped beautifully in the Topham last year and he stays.

"He did everything right today except win. I just want to make sure he's safe to get in the race, but I don't really want to go to Cheltenham on the way."

The supporting card provided several clues for the Cheltenham Festival, including Elsworth's other winner, Alasi ([3.8]).

She booked her ticket for a third trip to the big meeting with a narrow victory in the Sky Bet Mobile For Android Doncaster Mares' Hurdle.

A decision has yet to be made, however, whether Paul Webber's charge goes for the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle again or for the Jewson Novices' Chase, contests she can be backed at ([46.0]) and ([36.0]) respectively. She could prove an interesting outsider for the Mares' race at the Festival but she will have to improve to defeat the likes of Quevega and Voler La Vedette who currently head the field in Timeform ratings terms.

"If we chose the novice chase route at Cheltenham it would be the Jewson. Other than that it will be the David Nicholson again and we won't chase Quevega again like we tried last year," said owner Shully Liebermann.

Henderson's Kid Cassidy ([3.12]) might go to Cheltenham after giving Tony McCoy his first victory since returning from history in the Sky Bet Mobile For iPhone Lightning Novices' Chase.

"It didn't look like he needs to going round Cheltenham, but if we dropped him in and hunted round you never know. He has got the ability," said Henderson.

The Paul Nicholls-trained Rocky Creek ([3.94]) shortened into ([13.5]) for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle with William Hill when outpointing Gullinbursti in a race of the same name.

"We were disappointed when he got beat at Exeter, but he's shown his true colours," said jockey Daryl Jacob.

Trainer James Ewart will look at a race over the Mildmay fences at Aintree for Quicuyo ([17.0]) after the nine-year-old recorded his third win on this course in the Mirror Punters Club Handicap Chase.

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