Ante-post 
/ Simon Baker / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Oscar Whisky look overpriced in the Champion Hurdle market
"The form Oscar Whisky achieved that day is very close to high-class, and entitles him to be tighter to the three that head him in the market than is actually the case."
Timeform's Simon Baker looks through the main contenders for what is shaping up to be the best Champion Hurdle in many seasons...
Of all the ante-post markets at the Festival, the one for the Champion Hurdle is up there among the most perplexing, with four horses currently trading at single-figure prices and at least five others you could give a serious chance to at bigger odds.
Binocular has reclaimed favouritism at [4.3] after his win in the rearranged Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and justifiably so, as he has the best form of all the contenders. Indeed, when winning the Champion Hurdle last season, he recorded the best Timeform rating by a winner of the race since Rooster Booster, and before him Istabraq. Binocular will reportedly run in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown and it's difficult to see him being usurped as favourite between now and the Festival.
Hurricane Fly ([6.0]) was briefly favourite for the race having won both his starts in Ireland this season, on each occasion beating Solwhit in typical strong-travelling fashion. Hurricane Fly is now seven from eight over timber in Ireland, and is firmly established as the best hurdler on those shores. The pick of his form leaves him with a bit to find with Binocular, but it is by no means out of the question that Hurricane Fly is capable of even better, given that he hasn't yet had the opportunity to take on the best Britain has to offer.
Also undefeated this season is Menorah ([6.4]), who completes the trio of horses who have at one point been ante-post favourite for the Champion. Last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner has confirmed his liking for Cheltenham this term, winning the Greatwood there on his return prior to lowering the colours of Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti in the International Hurdle. The better of those two efforts in terms of form was the win under top weight in the Greatwood, though he was visually more impressive in the International, showing a good turn of foot before the last.
The unbeaten Peddlers Cross ([6.6]) is the other horse currently trading at single-figure odds. Peddlers Cross has improved by the run over timber, winning graded novice events at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals last season, and making a seamless transition to open company when beating Starluck and a below-form Binocular in the Fighting Fifth at Newbury on his reappearance. The bare form of the Fighting Fifth is short of what is required to win a Champion (10 lb below what Binocular achieved last year, for instance), but Peddlers Cross is clearly open to further improvement. Peddlers Cross runs in the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial on Saturday, and that is likely to prove a simple task for him given the level of opposition there.
After that quartet there is a gap in the market to Oscar Whisky ([21.0]), who laid down his claims for the Champion when hacking up in a two-and-a-half-mile minor event at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. The form Oscar Whisky achieved that day is very close to high-class, and entitles him to be tighter to the three that head him in the market than is actually the case. He next runs in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las, and a similar performance there could well result in him shortening up again.
Another representative of last year's Supreme form, Dunguib, is next in at [22.0]. Dunguib was the banker of the Festival for many last year, and ran a respectable race in the end for all he failed to land the odds. He hasn't been seen since finishing fourth to Hurricane Fly in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in April, and misses an intended assignment in the Irish Champion Hurdle due to a poor blood test. Dunguib obviously has plenty of ability, as he showed in his bumper campaign and when winning novice hurdles on the bridle in Ireland last term, but he offers pretty poor value at current prices given that his form is about 20 lb short of what is required.
Mille Chief ([26.0]) looks a much better bet than Dunguib at the prices given that he achieved a very smart level of form when winning a valuable Sandown handicap hurdle under top weight at the beginning of the month. Alan King has long held Mille Chief in high regard, and he was prominent in the market for last season's Triumph, only to miss the race with a setback. He will now run in a Champion Hurdle trial, and further improvement will see him right in the mix with the principals on form.
Last year's runner-up Khyber Kim ([40.0]) has taken a major walk in the market after his below-form reappearance, when only fourth to Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. The likelihood is that Kempton's two-mile track does not present Khyber Kim with a sufficient test of stamina, and he should do better at Cheltenham, though this year's renewal looks stronger than the one he was second in last year, and it could be that Aintree will afford him a better opportunity for success at the top level this term.
Another who has drifted somewhat is Silviniaco Conti ([36.0]), and his price looks on the generous side mindful of his form this year. Indeed, he ran to a Timeform rating of 163 when winning the Ascot Hurdle back in November, which puts him behind only Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Menorah in terms of achievement on the racecourse. Silviniaco Conti finished third, behind Menorah and Cue Card, in the International Hurdle when last seen, though there are several mitigating factors to his performance. Firstly, Silviniaco Conti was conceding 4 lb to the pair that beat him, while he was not ideally suited by the steady pace behind the ignored pacemaker that day. The drift out to [38.0] certainly looks an overreaction judged on form.
The market suggests that the Supreme is by far the more likely Festival target for Cue Card ([50.0]), though that price would look very big if Colin Tizzard did opt to go down the Champion route, as Cue Card is almost certainly capable of better - he'd likely get closer to Menorah than he did in the International granted a stronger pace. Having said that, the Supreme looks at his mercy, and it would be fully understandable if connections head there instead.
The two-mile hurdling division has perhaps lacked a bit of quality in recent seasons, but this year's renewal is shaping up to buck that trend, and it looks incredibly competitive. Binocular rates as the likeliest winner, but it's not particularly likely that either him or the trio that also trade at single-figure odds behind him (Hurricane Fly, Menorah, Peddlers Cross) are going to shorten appreciably between now and the Festival. Given that there isn't obviously much value left in any of their prices, the best approach might well be to side with a couple of up-and-comers in Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief, both of whom have the form to figure, and will get the opportunity to emphasise their credentials between now and the Festival, affording the opportunity to lock in a profit.
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