Copa America 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
It's not war, but Paolo Guerrero is still a man you want on your side
"The popular impression of third-place playoffs as high-scoring jamborees is an accurate one"
Neither Peru nor Venezuela has ever made it into the top three of a Copa America. Tobias Gourlay wonders which of them is more desperate for a place on the podium
Peru
Juan Manuel Vargas, the captain, is suspended. He will be missed by Paolo Guerrero, the team's sole striker in all of their matches so far, and by spectators too, who would have appreciated his dashing wing-play.
Sergio Markarian has protested that he is not a defensive coach. Now is the time for him to make his case.
Venezuela
Miku made an impression coming off the bench against Paraguay in Venezuela's semi-final and Cesar Farias might reward him with a place in the starting XI for this match.
Farias has been tinkering with his team - especially its attack - throughout the tournament and it is not obvious who he will select upfront for this match.
Match Odds
Venezuela are unbeaten in 90 minutes in the tournament to date (W2-D3-L0) and the [2.50] favourites. Peru are W1-D2-L2.
Motivation is debatable in a match like this. Who wants it more, as they say. This column can't be sure.
It does know, however, that there aren't many draws in third-place playoffs: one in eight at Copa Americas and one in the most recent 16 at World Cups. Whoever you thinks going to win, back them straight.
Over/Under Goals
Peru's last 12 matches - five games in Argentina, five friendlies and a couple of semi-friendly Kirin Cup matches in Japan - have produced two goals or fewer. So have three of Venezuela's five Copa America 2011 games.
This match is being played at La Plata, where there's a bad pitch and five games so far have produced only five goals.
Under 2.5 Goals might look good at [1.88], but consider the following: 6/8 Copa America third-place playoffs have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including each of the last four.
The popular impression of third-place playoffs as high-scoring jamborees is an accurate one in World Cups too: this game has gone Over 2.5 Goals at each of the last nine tournaments.
The usual rules do not apply.
To Score
This column is more hopeful of a few goals than the market and so the goalscorer markets are an obvious place to look for more value.
Six different players have scored for Venezuela in Argentina - a wider spread than in any other team - but Peru have one outstanding candidate to score anytime.
Paolo Guerrero has found the back of the net twice already in a low-scoring tournament and has played to role of lone forward with strength, determination and no small amount of skill. If Peru are to score, it will very likely be through the Hamburg striker.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.12]
Recommended Bet: Back Paolo Guerrero To Score @ [3.70]
Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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