Football Bet of the Day: Back the Dragon to melt the Steel Tricolour

"Atletico GO have won five of their last six home games, while Sampaio Correa have taken just two points from their last four outings."

Back Atletico GO to win at 2.166/5

Our travel-loving tipster Kevin Hatchard is once again on the lookout for profit, and he's settled on Brazil's Serie B for his latest effort.

Atletico Goianiense v Sampaio Correa
Saturday August 23rd, 20:10

Another disappointment for us this week, this time from Argentina, as Arsenal kept their powder largely dry and edged out Olimpo 1-0. We wanted Over 2.5 Goals at a hefty price, but as some old song that they're always playing on GOLD says, we can't always get what we want. We're back where we started a few weeks ago, but in the words of the esteemed philosopher Iain Dowie, we need to now show that we've got bouncebackability.

A short hop across to Brazil now, and a second-tier clash between Atletico Goianiense and Sampaio Correa. Atletico GO netted us a winner a couple of weeks ago when they obliging lost to high-flying Ceara, but that has been their only home defeat in the league all season. The Dragon, as they are known, have won five of their last six league games at the Estadio Serra Dourada. Only the division's top three teams have scored more goals on their own patch than Atletico.

Atletico aren't just playing well at home. Over the last six games in Brazil's second division, only Avai have collected more points than Atletico's tally of 12. Just like Daenerys Targaryen in Game of Thrones, Atletico have three particularly dangerous dragons they can unleash upon their opponents. The triumvirate of Junior Vicosa, Jorginho and Andre Luis have scored 17 goals between them, and Atletico GO are the only team to have three men in the top 15 of the Serie B goalscoring charts.

Tonight's opponents Sampaio Correa are only a point worse off than Atletico in the standings, but the newly-promoted side have hit a rough patch of form. The Steel Tricolour (the nicknames are one of my favourite bits of this job) hasn't been so steely of late, with just two points collected from the last four league games. Sampaio Correa have lost three of their last four away games, and overall they've won just two of their last eight outings.

Given the recent form of the two sides, 2.166/5 looks a touch overpriced for the home win.

Recommended Bet

Back Atletico GO to win at 2.166/5

Points Staked 12

Points Returned: 11.5

P/L: -0.5 points

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Follow The Money: Steel to make the cut

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two backs and one lay from our friends at Follow The Money. You'd be disappointed if it was anything else...

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Southwell and Wolverhampton.

We start with the opener at Wolverhampton, the 5f handicap at 14:00, in which the tried and tested Steelcut has been steadily supported from [6.5] in to [3.95]. Running off a mark just 3lbs higher than when last successful, David Evans' charge enjoys a course record of four wins, two places and two fourths from just 10 efforts at the track with three of those victories coming from just five tries over the minimum trip here. If we add the eye catching jockey, Joe Fanning, it is no surprise to see the support this morning for Steelcut.

Our negative today comes at Southwell in the shape of Heidi's Delight in the 14:15 who has been absolutely friendless and drifted from [2.8] out to [4.8]. With two early defections making this now eight runner race slightly more winnable, there has to be some concern that this course winner has been quite so weak in the market. The key may just lie with the fact that the filly is dropping back to 5f from 6f and that her two previous attempts at this distance resulted in defeats of approximately 12 lengths and 14 lengths respectively. The fibresand surface, with the added dimension of it being reported as "standard to slow", should help her cause but there has to be some concern that the race will still be all but over by the time she does get going.

Our final mover comes in the 15:45 at the same track in which Ghostwing has been backed from [10.0] in to [5.8]. The gelding didn't exactly excel last time when 8th at Wolverhampton but the return to the scene of his last success on his penultimate start plus the booking of the current "talking" apprentice, Darren Egan looks to be a massive plus. Having left the Irish flat scene in June 2010 with a record of just 2-37 to go Pony Riding, this 7lb claimer has hit the ground running with three wins from just eight rides since coming here at the end of January with rumours that some "shrewdies" are trying to get a price on him being champion apprentice. Perhaps the hint should be taken.

Recommended Bets

Back Steelcut @ [3.95] Wolverhampton 14:00
Lay Heidi's Delight @ [4.8] Southwell 14:15
Back Ghostwing @ [5.8] Southwell 15:45

That's all for today. If you're on the move this information is recorded on 0870 90 80 181

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Steel some value?

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Check out David's bet over jumps at Cartmel

"Hunter’s Light definitely has more to offer and rates the value."

David Cleary selects a pair of bets from Thursday afternoon's racing, one over the jumps and one on the Flat.

It's mostly bread-and-butter fare this afternoon, but there is one plum, the listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton at 15:40. Seven are set to go to the post, with the Mark Johnston-trained Malthouse the likely favourite. He comes here in good form and, while his best efforts have been in large fields, he still seems likely to give a good account. However, Hunter's Light has a similar level of ability, judged on his maiden win at Newmarket, and more potential to improve. He can be forgiven his effort at Royal Ascot last time, lacking experience, stepped up to Group 3 company, and he was spared a hard race. Soft ground may not have suited him either. On looks and pedigree, Hunter's Light definitely has more to offer and rates the value here.

Cartmel stages the afternoon jumping action. Good bets look thin on the ground but it's worth taking on the likely market leaders Englishtown and The Snail in the handicap hurdle at 17:10. They are well handicapped but both are also unreliable and infrequent winners. The best option against them may be What A Steel. He didn't stay three miles last time but shaped as if still in good form and his earlier efforts this season read well.

Recommended Bets
Back Hunter's Light @ [3.65] in the 15:40 at Hamilton
Back What A Steel @ [9.8] in the 17:10 at Cartmel

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The Championship Betting: Iron lacking steel on the road

Championship / Andrew French / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Norwich are one of the highest-scoring away teams in the Championship

"Norwich travel well; only leaders QPR have picked up more points away from home, and with 24 goals on the road, they are one of the division’s highest away scorers."

Andrew French picks out his best bets from the midweek Championship fixtures, including Middlesbrough and Scunthorpe to carry on struggling.

Barnsley v Scunthorpe

There was a time when Scunthorpe couldn't win at home - now they can't stop (three in the last four). But it has come at a price; their previously well-above-average away form has nosedived and they have now lost their last eight on the road. To make matters worse, they have not even scored a goal on their travels in their last seven attempts - a run that stretches all the way back to late November. Therefore, all the signs point towards a home win for Barnsley, who have been particularly adept at putting away struggling sides at Oakwell this season; they have won five out of seven when hosting bottom-half sides (and the other two were draws). They have not failed to score at home against a team in the bottom half this season, and given Scunthorpe have conceded 20 in their eight-game away losing sequence, you have to fancy the Tykes to get at least one in this fixture. That may well be enough for the three points.

Back Barnsley at [1.86]

Middlesbrough v Derby

Even against a team struggling like Derby, it would take a brave man, in my opinion, to want to support Middlesbrough at odds-on. The fact they are available to back at 1.97 is surely more to do with what Derby haven't been doing recently (i.e. winning) than anything Middlesbrough have achieved. Boro were the pre-season hot-pots for promotion, but 10 wins from 34 later and they are still only three points above the drop zone. Stuffed 5-2 at Reading at the weekend and without a home win in three, Boro do not strike me as a team to be getting bullish about. Admittedly, Derby have been in freefall but they have been digging their heels in away from home and are unbeaten in their last three on the road. Boro have managed only three home wins in seven attempts against fellow bottom-half teams - whereas Derby have lost only three times in away trips to teams below halfway.

Lay Middlesbrough at [1.98]

Leicester v Norwich

This is a game that could go either way - but I am happy to back both sides to find the net. Leicester's recent charge up the table has been partially arrested by a run of three games without a win, but the one stand-out stat is that they have not failed to score in a league game at the Walkers Stadium since Sven-Goran Eriksson took over; a run of 13 games during which period they have netted 30 times. So, if we are pretty confident that Leicester will hit the net, what about the visitors? Well, Norwich travel well; only leaders QPR have picked up more points away from home, and with 24 goals on the road, they are one of the division's highest away scorers. They have only failed to score twice away from home all season, the best record in the Championship - and they have scored at least once in 10 of their last 11 road trips.

Back Both teams to Score at [1.82]

Since the start of 2011 Andrew has had 19 winning bets from 30 selections, resulting in a profit of £90.27 (£10 stake/liability on each selection)

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