Against All Odds: Birmingham and Barnsley to dish up goals

Daily Tipping / Paul Robinson / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Both sides are in pretty decent nick at present and they are both certainly on fire in front of goal."

Barnsley host Birmingham in the English Championship tonight in what, on paper, appears to be a goalfest in the making. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on though and Paul Robinson believes that is definitely worth opposing.

Barnsley are 14th in the table with 42 points from 31 fixtures. Those 31 games have seen them score 44 and concede 48, giving their matches an average of just shy of three goals. The goals have certainly been flowing at Oakwell in recent months as eight of the last 10 have gone over 2.5 and a few of the them have resembled cricket scores; 3-5, 4-1 and 3-2 being notable examples. In terms of winning and losing, the Tykes have been in decent nick at home this season and Keith Hill has seen his side win eight of their last 12 in front of their own fans. If Barnsley are to retain any hopes of a play-off spot this year then a win tonight is a must as they are already nine points behind this evening's opponents, who themselves currently occupy sixth place.

Birmingham are having a fine season after relegation from the Premiership last year and they are still in with a shout of automatic promotion. Chris Hughton has worked wonders given that he lost some of their star players in the summer and a win tonight could see them go third. Brum's matches are averaging exactly 2.5 goals and three of their last five away from St Andrews have had three goals or more, including a 0-6 hammering of Millwall and a 1-4 victory over Leeds last time Big money buy Nikola Zigic netter four on that occasion and while he is out injured for this one, Marlon King should be available again.

Both sides are in pretty decent nick at present and they are both certainly on fire in front of goal. I wouldn't like to guess at who will win this one, but I am pretty confident that there will be goals galore, so with under 2.5 goals trading at around [1.92], I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Under 2.5 goals @ [1.92]

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Premier League Betting: Birmingham v West Brom

Premier League / Jaymes Monte / 04 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Hodgson is beginning to implement his ideas at West Brom.

"For the most part WBA coped admirably with the physical threat at Stoke on Monday night and, after another five days on the training ground, they should be a few steps closer to Hodgson’s ideal."

Wembley hangover or riding the crest of a wave? Jaymes Monte previews a crucial relegation six-pointer.

Birmingham return to the harsh realities of a relegation dog fight just six days after the biggest day in the club's history. The question that bettors have to find an answer to is how Sunday's exploits will affect their performance this weekend.

One school of thought suggests that they will be high in confidence and relishing this weekend's game, the other says that anything following a Wembley triumph is likely to be a come down and they may find it difficult to raise their game again. More on that later.

The Blues have reported no fresh injury concerns meaning Roger Johnson should play despite visibly struggling with a calf injury at Wembley. West Brom have a clean bill of health and could name an unchanged starting XI.

Match Odds
Being at home is a major positive for Birmingham this weekend. Not only because the Blues have lost just three home games all season but also because it means that they can build on the momentum gained from their Carling Cup win.

The home crowd will be in celebratory mood and Alex McLeish can fire up his players to use that to their advantage. Had they been playing away from home then they would have been required to lift themselves.

Roy Hodgson has certainly added stability to the West Brom side since his arrival but they'll need to start turning the draws into wins if they are to claw their way out of trouble.

It's a big game for both sides but a raucous home crowd should be enough to see the Blues pick up three points and they can be backed to do so at odds of [2.4].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
While Hodgson hasn't managed to completely halt the flow of goals being conceded he has certainly been successful in plugging some of the leaks. As a consequence they have also stopped scoring as many and haven't looked too threatening in each of Hodgson's two games in charge, prior to Carlos Vela being introduced.

Vela's style doesn't fit into Hodgson's master plan of pragmatism and rigidity, but his late goals from the substitutes bench may force the hand of the new head coach.

Add the Baggies' newfound solidity to the fact that no team has scored fewer Premier League goals on their home patch than Birmingham and we could be in for a tight, low scoring affair. Under 2.5 goals is a [1.75] shot with the reciprocal selection available to back at [2.3].

West Brom Clean Sheet
It's a staggering 26 Premier League games since West Brom kept a clean sheet. They have stopped the opposition from scoring just twice in all competitions this season and haven't had a defensive shutout since late August.

There's no doubting that Hodgson highlighted this problem as his first point of focus when he came in to the club. For the most part they coped admirably with the physical threat at Stoke on Monday night and, after another five days on the training ground, they should be a few steps closer to Hodgson's ideal.

It obviously contradicts my suggestion to back a Birmingham win, but backing a West Brom clean sheet at [4.0] is both a good value bet and a worthwhile safety net.

To Score
Two goals in two appearances from the bench from on-loan Vela have kept West Brom's head above the water. It would be foolish to ignore the little Mexican here at odds of [3.0], especially if he is picked in the starting XI.

Birmingham have a couple of in-form strikers of their own in Nikola Zigic, who has scored three goals in his last four starts, and Obafemi Martins who has two in two. The Serbian striker is [2.5] to add to his tally of eight for the season while Martins is a slightly shorter [2.4].

Best Bet:
Back Birmingham to win @ [2.4]

Recommended Bets:
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.75]
Back West Brom clean sheet @ [4.0]

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Carling Cup Results: Birmingham shock Arsenal and punters

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

You beauty. Lee Bowyer can't wait to congratulate match-winner Obafemi Martins

"At the start of this competition a Birmingham win was certainly not on the cards according to the Betfair market; they traded at a high of 65.0 when it started. As for Arsenal, the wait for some silverware goes on."

Obafemi Martins and Ben Foster were the heroes as Birmingham won in the most unlikely of circumstances to further prolong the Arsenal trophy drought.

Birmingham caused one of the all-time upsets in League Cup finals by beating Arsenal courtesy of a late, late Obafemi Martins winner.

It was the Blues who took the lead via the giant Nikola Zigic (matched at 18.5 to be first scorer) very much against the run of play but when Robin van Persie levelled the scores with a fine strike it seemed like Arsenal's momentum would inevitably lead to a second sooner or later.

It was an entertaining final with Samir Nasri the stand-out performer for Arsenal whilst Ben Foster in goal for Birmingham won the Man Of The Match award after a string of fine saves that kept the likes of Nasri and van Persie at bay.

The Gunners had traded at just [1.41] pre-match to win in 90 minutes and at the start of injury-time the draw was trading at just [1.22] but a calamitous defensive mix-up at the heart of Arsenal's defence offered Martins the simplest of tap-ins and the Nigerian made no mistake.

Alex McLeish's side were backed at a high of 28.0 In-Play on the match odds market and at 40.0 to win 2-1; a half-time draw with the underdogs winning at full-time was matched at [23.0].

At the start of this competition a Birmingham win was certainly not on the cards according to the Betfair market; they traded at a high of [65.0] when it started. As for Arsenal, the wait for some silverware goes on.

In the Premier League Liverpool were comprehensively beaten 3-1 by West Ham whilst Manchester City once again dropped points from a winning position. Roberto Mancini's men were matched at [1.23] after going a goal up at home to Fulham but conceded just after half-time; the draw was backed at [6.2].

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The Big Match Tactical Preview: Arsenal v Birmingham

Carling Cup / Michael Cox / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Samir Nasri will probably play in the fabregas role with Niklas Bendtner also a good candidate for a starting place

"Walcott often helps Arsenal by stretching the play and providing an outlet on the flank, but his absence means Arsenal are much more keen on working the ball through the centre of the pitch. I think this might result in a low corner count, so will be backing 9 or less corners at around [3.3]."

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final.

The focus here is on Arsenal having the chance to win their first trophy since 2005, but Birmingham haven't won a major honour since 1963 - this final means a great deal to both sets of supporters.

Sadly, injury setbacks have dominated the build-up to this final for both sides. Arsenal's 1-0 midweek win over Stoke saw them robbed of both Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott for their Wembley trip, whilst Birmingham look set to be without centre-back Scott Dann, and former Arsenal midfielder Alex Hleb. Another former Gunner, David Bentley, is cup-tied.

Arsene Wenger will stick to his 4-2-3-1 system. Arsenal's injury problems mean that Andrei Arshavin, who has got over his recent poor run of form, will start on the left for Arsenal, with Samir Nasri likely to come infield and play the Fabregas role. With Robin van Persie set to skipper the side upfront, the final attacking position is up for grabs - it's likely to be on the right in Walcott's position (though Nasri's versatility means Wenger could change things), and whilst Tomas Rosicky is perhaps a more natural fit, the Czech's below-par performances recently means Nicklas Bendtner may get a start against the club he was on loan to in 2006/07.

Alex McLeish has a decision to make about his formation. In recent weeks, he's paired Obafemi Martins and Nikola Zigic in a 4-4-2, but in this game it wouldn't be a surprise if he opted to play a more conservative 4-5-1 formation. Lee Bowyer will probably replace Bentley and has the ability to play either as a wide player or in the centre - that will depend on the formation, with Martins probably preferred if McLeish goes 4-4-2, and Jean Beausejour more likely for a 4-5-1. The shape of Birmingham will play a part in the pattern of the game - McLeigh might want to keep things tight early on and have the option of introducing another striker, so 4-5-1 seems more appropriate.

That might mean the ball spends a lot of time in the midfield zone. Arsenal are likely to dominate possession, whilst Birmingham have caused them some problems in recent years by sitting back and defending very narrow, forcing Arsenal to go down the outside. Walcott often helps Arsenal by stretching the play and providing an outlet on the flank, but his absence means Arsenal are much more keen on working the ball through the centre of the pitch. I think this might result in a low corner count, so will be backing 9 or less corners at around [3.3].

Birmingham's main threat could come from an aerial route through Zigic. The Serb is not the best natural header of the ball, but has improved in that respect in recent weeks, and his height is always a threat. He nodded in against Arsenal earlier in the season at the Emirates and has scored two headers in the last three games. Arsenal would do well to cut off the supply to him - Sebastian Larsson's crossing is always a threat from the right, so Gael Clichy will have to stick tightly to him early on.

Also down that flank, Arshavin against Stephen Carr should be an interesting battle. Carr is a much quicker, fitter player than his age would imply, and Arshavin is notably rather slack defensively at times. Carr's first priority will be to keep Arshavin quiet, but don't be surprised to see him get forward to work 2 v 1 situations with Larsson. That might be a promising area of the pitch for Birmingham, whilst set-pieces are also likely to be utilised effectively.

Arsenal's interplay around the box will surely cause Birmingham problems, however, and their 3-0 win at St Andrews on New Year's Day was one of their most impressive performances of the season. I fancy them to score a couple here, so will also back Arsenal To Score In Both Halves at [2.5].

Recommended bets:

9 or less corners at [3.3]
Arsenal To Score In Both Halves at [2.5]

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Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from...

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Carling Cup Final Betting: Arsenal v Birmingham

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Robin van Persie can't stop scoring since returning from injury

"Tipping up van Persie to open the scoring gives me little or no pleasure but it’s hard to look beyond this man. He’ll be captaining the side, on free-kick and penalty duty and has scored 13 goals in 21 appearances since returning from injury."

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from it.

It's funny how these things go. A few years back Arsene Wenger treated this competition as a cross between an unwelcome distraction and an opportunity to blood youngsters or give a few reserves a run out. But as the trophies have dried up over the years he's fielded increasingly strong sides and he'll be treating Sunday's final as a his number one priority at the moment, such is the pressure on his side to win something, anything.

He'll be fielding his best possible eleven though that won't of course include the injured Cesc Fabregas, who very bizarrely found out he wouldn't be playing for sure after reading about it on Arsenal's official website. You would have thought someone would have told him that before the news was broken to the general public but it seems Arsenal really do like to do things a bit differently these days. Theo Walcott (who opened the scoring in their 2-1 defeat to Chelsea in the 2008 final) is also out injured, as is Thomas Vermaelen and Lukas Fabianski.

Birmingham are struggling in the league a little but there are weaker sides than them in the Premier League this year and they're unlikely to be relegated. Either way, any relegation fears are for Alex McLeish to worry about another time. This is the Blues' big day and even though most people are writing them off before a ball has been kicked in anger, they'll feel they have a very decent chance of beating the Gunners in a one-off match on neutral ground. Especially as it's the north Londoners, not them, who are under pressure to win. The impressive Scott Dann is a long-term casualty while former Arsenal man Alexander Hleb may also miss out with a knee injury.

Match Odds

I won't rule out Birmingham's chances completely but experience of huge matches counts for a lot and one side have plenty of it and the other not so much. With Robin van Persie in tremendous goalscoring form and spirits still high after that superb comeback against Barcelona, the Gunners should really win this within 90 minutes but they won't necessarily come flying out of the blocks and score early. Arsenal are a patient side who will want to enjoy some solid early possession and we may see a slightly uneventful first half hour. Maybe not what the neutral wants to see but it should give us the opportunity for an In-Play trade which will guarantee us a green book. Lay Arsenal at [1.5] pre-match with a view to backing them at around [1.75] around the 30th minute or so.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

It's hard to use stats here. There's no point looking at numbers in the league for obvious reasons and there's not much point considering how they've fared in the previous rounds as a final is a completely different ball game, so to speak. Birmingham and Arsenal's presence in recent League Cup finals have been very rare in recent times so that doesn't offer us much assistance either. It's evens the pair on this market. If Arsenal score first they're more likely to manage their lead rather than go searching for more like they do in league fixtures and with all due respect to Birmingham, if they do go behind I'm not sure they have the weapons or the belief to fight back. You'll find better bets than under 2.5 goals at [2.0] on Betfair's markets but that selection gets the nod here.

First Goalscorer/To score

Tipping up van Persie to open the scoring gives me little or no pleasure but it's hard to look beyond this man. He'll be captaining the side, on free-kick and penalty duty and has scored 13 goals in 21 appearances since returning from injury. He's not necessarily huge value at 5.0 but he's the overwhelming candidate to grab the first goal for the reasons just stated.

If you're looking for something a little more adventurous you might want to consider Alex Song at around [26.0]. The Cameroon international is a threat from corners and has recently found his way into the opponent's penalty box a lot more than in previous seasons. He's scored five times already this season.

To be shown a card

Despite the importance of the match I don't expect this to be a dirty game. No-one wants to be sent off in a Cup final and referees are perhaps a little more lenient given they're reluctant to spoil a game like this by reducing a team to ten men. Remember the reprieve Nemanja Vidic got last year. That said, Lee Bowyer often treads a fine line between what is acceptable and what isn't and should have walked when the Blues hosted Arsenal in the league just after Christmas. Back the former Leeds man to be shown a card at around [3.0].

Best bet: Back Robin van Persie to be first golascorer at [5.0]
Recommended bet: Back Lee Bowyer to be shown a card at [3.0]

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final....

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from...

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Premier League Betting: West Ham v Birmingham

Premier League / Frank Gregan / 05 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Robbie Keane score again for the Hammers?

"Odds of [2.6] should be available on him notching on his home debut whilst for Birmingham Craig Gardner gets more than his share from midfield and should be available at [5.0]."

With Robbie Keane desperate to score in front of his new home fans, can West Ham avenge their recent Carling Cup defeat against Birmingham. Frank Gregan selects the best bets.

This is an opportunity for West Ham to gain revenge for last month's Carling Cup semi final which was won by Birmingham in extra time during the second leg at St Andrews and is also a chance for the West Ham hierarchy to put one over the club they used to own. They will be buoyed by a much needed midweek victory at Blackpool in which Robbie Keane scored on debut.

Birmingham came from behind twice to draw 2-2 with Man City but now find themselves level on points with West Ham and only out of the relegation zone courtesy of goal difference, although they do have two games in hand on the Hammers.

Danny Gabbidon faces a fitness test having had to be withdrawn against Blackpool in midweek and Avram Grant looks likely to be without the services of Thomas Hitzlsperger (thigh) and Manuel Da Costa (ankle). Birmingham have doubts over Roger Johnson (calf) and Barry Ferguson (ankle).

Match Odds - West Ham [2.1] Birmingham [4] The Draw [3.6]

The [2.1] available on West Ham looks very skinny for a side that has only a 25% win record at home this season and have been unable to record back to back wins in the league. They last strung two league wins together a year ago. Ironically, Birmingham were one of the two sides they defeated then and the market has obviously taken into account the Blues dreadful away record (only Wolves have taken less points on the road) when arriving at a short price for a home win.

Birmingham's record way from St Andrews is somewhat misleading. They might not win on the road but they are difficult to beat. They have gained at least a point in over half of the away games they have played this season. So the question is: Do you want to back a team that wins one in four at home at [2.1] or lay them against a side that has got something out of 55% of their away games?

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Whilst neither side are prolific scorers, 58% of West Ham's home games and 64% of Birmingham's away games have yielded more than 2.5 goals. The three previous clashes this season between these two side have all had more than 2.5 goals, both Carling Cup ties finishing with a three goal aggregate over 90 minutes and four goals in their league clash at St Andrews in November. It is therefore something of a surprise to see 'overs' the marginal outsider at [2.1] with unders at [1.9].

To Score

The man of the moment for West Ham is Robbie Keane and despite already being off the mark with his midweek goal he'll be eager to make an impression on the home supporters. Odds of [2.6] should be available on him notching on his home debut whilst for Birmingham Craig Gardner gets more than his share of goals from midfield and should be available at [5] to find the back of the net.

Over/Under 6.5 goals

This market can offer a big return for a small investment and is an interesting bet to have In-Play, particularly if the game pans out your way! A lay on 'unders' can be attained at [1.02] prior to kick off with a sizeable potential return for a small liability. All it takes to facilitate a trade is an early goal or two but you might like to brave it out to half-time and see what's available if there has been three or more goals before the break.

Best Bet : Robbie Keane to score at [2.6].
Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals at [2.1]

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