Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: King's Road the way to riches

Tipping / Patrick Jupp / 12 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Today's Irish action is due to kick off at 17.20

"King's Road made a most encouraging return to this sphere (fit from hurdling) when second over a mile and a half at Tipperary, making up a lot of ground out wide in the straight that day before his effort flattened out inside the final furlong"

The Irish action comes from Gowran today and we've got three win bets lined up...

Belle's Ridge (19.30) may no longer be capable of the sort of form that saw him win a 9.5 furlong handicap here in 2009 off a handicap mark of 89, but he has dropped to such an attractive mark (starts this campaign off 65) that he should be supported in a race where progressive types look thin on the ground. Belle's Ridge has a reasonable record fresh and a good draw in stall 3, whilst Pat Smullen on board for the first time also catches the eye.

The apprentice handicap just over half an hour later doesn't look any stronger, despite another maximum field, so King's Road rather stands out. He made a most encouraging return to this sphere (fit from hurdling) when second over a mile and a half at Tipperary, making up a lot of ground out wide in the straight that day before his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. He's only 3 lb higher in the weights now and the stiffer track helps to negate that drop in trip, whilst Sam James is developing into one of the leading apprentices in Ireland.

Selecting Azores in the closing maiden (20.35) will win no prizes for originality, but such was the impression she made on her debut that she is worth putting up at a shade of odds on. She's bred in the purple, half-sister to the Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire, and has a price tag to match, so it was no surprise to see her prominent in the market for her debut at Cork last month, when finishing second to stablemate Sapphire Pendant. That rival has since upheld the form when runner-up in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, and Azores shaped like the better prospect for much of the way, looking sure to collect when hitting the front a furlong out (traded at 1.05 on Betfair in running) before showing her inexperience as she edged right, nailed close home. Azores should take this on her way to stepping up in grade.

Recommendations

All at Gowran

Back Belle's Ridge in the 19.30
Back King's Road in the 20.05
Back Azores in the 20.35

Timeform run the rule over what will surely be a hugely informative Derby trial......

Three backs for Wednesday's racing from Timeform's US team......

My colleagues Stuart Jones and Pat Jupp have been in good form lately so hopefully I can keep the good run going today......

Phil Thompson is in the placepot hotseat for the first day of the Dante meeting......

Betfair website

IPL Betting: King's XI v Mumbai

Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Shaun Marsh has runs against Mumbai in the locker

"Sachin Tendulkar is the obvious draw but did you know that Ambati Rayudu, with 349 runs, is only 16 runs behind the Little Master?"

Ed Hawkins previews what looks like a mismatch as the Indians look to march on

Punjab
King's are rivalling Pune for the wooden spoon in this IPL. Do they have anyone in good form? Not really. Shalabh Srivastava , the left-arm quick, took 2-20 against Pune but otherwise Adam Gilchrist, a shadow of his former self, leads a side shorn of confidence.

Mumbai
In Rohit Sharma, Kieron Pollard and Andrew Symonds Mumbai have a formidable middle-order. Harbhajan Singh, Lasith Malinga and Munaf Patel each took two wickets in their last outing.

Match odds
Mumbai strolled to victory over Delhi last time by 32 runs and Punjab should not trouble the Indians. Of course the odds reflect this. The hosts are [2.84] with the Indians [1.47]. When they met earlier, Mumbai won by 23 runs. Shaun Marsh offered resistance with 61.

Top Mumbai batsman
Sachin Tendulkar is the obvious draw but did you know that Ambati Rayudu, with 349 runs, is only 16 runs behind the Little Master?

Mumbai innings runs
The Mohali surface looks pretty good to bat on. Mumbai should post more than 160 if they bat first. Chennai managed 188 and King's 194 in two of the three played

Best bet: Mumbai to score 160 or more if they bat first @ [1.80]

Ed Hawkins can't fathom why Deccan are such a big price to beat a Warriors side who have had a forgettable tournament...

Its crunch time for both of these under performers. Sunday's second game is a battle of the basement as the ailing Punjab take on the wilting Warriors.

Shane Warne's Rajasthan are extremely strong at home whereas MS Dhoni's Chennai struggle away from their own ground. In the week that the great Aussie spinner has announced his retirement, he may just give his home crowd something to celebrate....

Betfair website

Oscars Betting: King's Speech v The Social Network

Oscars / Jack Houghton / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jack's backing The Social Network to win best picture

"The Social Network was the [1.6] favourite... But there has been the most almighty betting flip-flop."

The King's Speech is likely to win a clutch of Oscars on Sunday but Jack Houghton has found a value call in the Best Picture category.

The Social Network is a huge price at [5.5] to pick up the Best Picture award at the Oscars on Sunday night. I don't say this because of some deeply held artistic belief in David Fincher's film - to be honest with you, I haven't seen it - but because there are signs telling us that it is the American-written, American-made, contemporary all-American story that will prevail over the British-made story of a long-dead stuttering king.

That was certainly the view when betting opened on the event. Betfair punters offered The Social Network as their [1.6] favourite, mirroring the opinions of the Vegas oddsmakers who priced it up at anywhere between 1-3 and 4-6. But since then, there has been the most almighty betting flip-flop. Much of this has been driven by The King's Speech winning a couple of small-time Oscar warm-up gongs - the Producers Guild of America award and the Directors Guild of America - as well as picking up the BAFTA for Best Film.

The conspiracy theorists also suggest that The King's Speech PR team has been working overtime on the Academy's estimated 6,000 voters. This supposedly anonymous group are much-maligned for their conservative taste in film and so, the logic goes, it won't take much to persuade them to cast their vote for a film about that most conservative of institutions: the Royal Family.

There might be something in all this, but even a cursory glance back over recent Best Picture winners and defeated nominees suggests there is little in the way of a discernible pattern when it comes to the type of film that gets the eventual nod. Was the third Lord of the Rings flick the traditionalists' choice? Was Million Dollar Baby more conservative than The Aviator? Did Crash only win because the homophobic Academy rejected Brokeback and Capote? It's difficult to tell. It could just be that, each and every year, what must be a fairly disparate group of individuals vote for their favourite film, and one gets more votes than the others.

What has been clear in the past is that the Golden Globes are a relatively good predictor of Oscar success. In 59 years, the winner of the Globe for Best Drama has gone on to Oscar Best Picture success on 30 occasions. The Social Network was the most decorated film at this year's Golden Globes, picking up awards for best director, best screenplay, best score and, yes, best drama.

The King's Speech will certainly win its fair share of Oscars, but at the prices, The Social Network is the value call for Best Picture.

*****
One of those Oscars will undoubtedly come courtesy of Colin Firth in the Leading Actor category. At the time of writing he is available at [1.07], with a whole wodge of money available at [1.06]. With the best saving accounts offering no more than three per cent at the moment - and that involves tying your money up for the whole year - it's tempting to empty the wallet on what must be an absolute certainty. Please note though, the value of your investments can go down as well as up.

The King's Speech is likely to win a clutch of Oscars on Sunday but Jack Houghton has found a value call in the Best Picture category....

With 12 nominations, The King's Speech looks all set to dominate the 83rd Academy Awards, and be the big story when we all wake up from our James-Franco-induced-slumber on the morning of Monday February 28. But which gongs is the...

Royal drama scoops a massive 12 nominations as Betfair punters prepare to get involved with the Oscars markets......

Betfair website