The Punter's In-Play Blog: The Castelló Masters and the Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

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View Market The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Thomas Aiken – The Punter’s first in-play pick in Spain

“Thomas Aiken was one of those on the shortlist before the off and I felt he was a perfectly fair price at [25.0] as he finished his first round on -3.”

Tom Lewis pulls out with flu and Thomas Aiken putts poorly. Not a great day so far, as Steve adds one of last week's disappointments...

12.00- October 21, 2011

It's not been a great morning in Spain. So much for hearing no more of Tom Lewis' ailments - he's withdrawn with flu! And my first in-running play, Thomas Aiken, has putted very poorly.

The man to beat looks like Alexander Noren, who is in imperious form and could have been even further under par if his putter had behaved better. As I type, he's -9 for the tournament and leading with two to play. He was a disappointing selection for me last week in Portugal but he's back in the groove here. I've scrambled aboard at an average of [5.6], which will look good if Sergio Garcia doesn't go bananas this afternoon.

23.35- October 20, 2011

It's been a fairly standard Thursday really, with some ups and a few more downs. The highlight, by some distance, was the performance of George Coetzee, who ended round one in Spain on -4 and in a tie for fourth, three shots adrift of first round leader Ross McGowan. And the lowlight, by a country mile, was the pathetic first round of Justin Rose. 75 around the Palm Course was a dreadful effort and it leaves him with virtually no chance.

They're still playing in the States but I thought I'd kick the blog off now because I've already had a couple of in-play bets and the first of them, Thomas Aiken, starts his second round early tomorrow, at 7.45. Aiken was one of those on the shortlist before the off and I felt he was a perfectly fair price at [25.0] as he finished his first round on -3.

Of my pre-event bets, other than George, most look lost causes but I haven't completely given up on Tom Lewis yet. He endured a dreadful start but recovered quite well. He's apparently suffering from some sort illness, described on Sky as some kind of neck virus? All very odd really and I wouldn't be surprised if it was something of nothing and we hear no more about it tomorrow. Hopefully he'll be as right as rain and a good score will follow.

The big danger to all has to be Sergio Garcia and I'm kicking myself (albeit gently with slippers on) for not getting him onside. I very nearly backed him a couple of times this morning but my instinct stopped me. I just hope my gut feeling was right.

In Florida, Rose wasn't the only disaster. Both Stephen Ames and Ryan Palmer were equally poor and my other three haven't exactly set the world alight. The best of my selections after round one is Heath Slocum but on -3, he's hardly in the thick of things.

Thanks to breezy conditions, the scoring wasn't as low as I'd expected and the lead is just -6, held by seven players, including world number one and tournament favourite, Luke Donald, one of Dan Geraghty's picks, Gary Woodland, and my first in-running play at the event - Arjun Atwal.

Atwal impressed me immensely when he won the Wyndham Championship last year. He was a pre-event pick at last week's McGladrey Classic and I can't for the life of me see why he's as big as he is at [60.0].

Castelló Masters pre-event selections:

George Coetzee @ [34.0]
Tom Lewis [36.0]
Pablo Larrazabal @ [36.0]
Benjamin Hebert @ [130.0]
James Morrison @ [130.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [200.0]

In-play bet

Thomas Aiken @ [25.0]
Alexander Noren @ [5.6]

Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic selections:

Justin Rose @ [16.5]
Ryan Palmer @ [65.0]
Stephen Ames @ [80.0]
Heath Slocum @ [80.0]
Michael Thompson @ [100.0]
Scott McCarron @ [250.0]

In-play bet

Arjun Atwal @ [60.0]

It's a pair of middling events on either side of the Atlantic but that doesn't make for any lack of betting opportunities and Steve's helped himself to a handful of selections in both...

Well-rested Charl to master the major men...

Steve strikes gold with [160.0] shot Tom Lewis but what has he learnt for next year?...

Betfair website

Oscars Betting: King's Speech v The Social Network

Oscars / Jack Houghton / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jack's backing The Social Network to win best picture

"The Social Network was the [1.6] favourite... But there has been the most almighty betting flip-flop."

The King's Speech is likely to win a clutch of Oscars on Sunday but Jack Houghton has found a value call in the Best Picture category.

The Social Network is a huge price at [5.5] to pick up the Best Picture award at the Oscars on Sunday night. I don't say this because of some deeply held artistic belief in David Fincher's film - to be honest with you, I haven't seen it - but because there are signs telling us that it is the American-written, American-made, contemporary all-American story that will prevail over the British-made story of a long-dead stuttering king.

That was certainly the view when betting opened on the event. Betfair punters offered The Social Network as their [1.6] favourite, mirroring the opinions of the Vegas oddsmakers who priced it up at anywhere between 1-3 and 4-6. But since then, there has been the most almighty betting flip-flop. Much of this has been driven by The King's Speech winning a couple of small-time Oscar warm-up gongs - the Producers Guild of America award and the Directors Guild of America - as well as picking up the BAFTA for Best Film.

The conspiracy theorists also suggest that The King's Speech PR team has been working overtime on the Academy's estimated 6,000 voters. This supposedly anonymous group are much-maligned for their conservative taste in film and so, the logic goes, it won't take much to persuade them to cast their vote for a film about that most conservative of institutions: the Royal Family.

There might be something in all this, but even a cursory glance back over recent Best Picture winners and defeated nominees suggests there is little in the way of a discernible pattern when it comes to the type of film that gets the eventual nod. Was the third Lord of the Rings flick the traditionalists' choice? Was Million Dollar Baby more conservative than The Aviator? Did Crash only win because the homophobic Academy rejected Brokeback and Capote? It's difficult to tell. It could just be that, each and every year, what must be a fairly disparate group of individuals vote for their favourite film, and one gets more votes than the others.

What has been clear in the past is that the Golden Globes are a relatively good predictor of Oscar success. In 59 years, the winner of the Globe for Best Drama has gone on to Oscar Best Picture success on 30 occasions. The Social Network was the most decorated film at this year's Golden Globes, picking up awards for best director, best screenplay, best score and, yes, best drama.

The King's Speech will certainly win its fair share of Oscars, but at the prices, The Social Network is the value call for Best Picture.

*****
One of those Oscars will undoubtedly come courtesy of Colin Firth in the Leading Actor category. At the time of writing he is available at [1.07], with a whole wodge of money available at [1.06]. With the best saving accounts offering no more than three per cent at the moment - and that involves tying your money up for the whole year - it's tempting to empty the wallet on what must be an absolute certainty. Please note though, the value of your investments can go down as well as up.

The King's Speech is likely to win a clutch of Oscars on Sunday but Jack Houghton has found a value call in the Best Picture category....

With 12 nominations, The King's Speech looks all set to dominate the 83rd Academy Awards, and be the big story when we all wake up from our James-Franco-induced-slumber on the morning of Monday February 28. But which gongs is the...

Royal drama scoops a massive 12 nominations as Betfair punters prepare to get involved with the Oscars markets......

Betfair website