The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Ben bring some cheer?

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ben Crane - Can he cheer up The Punter?

“It’s been a typically frustrating event to bet on with TV coverage revolving around an out of contention Phil Mickelson, an uncompetitive Greg Norman and an ex-president in Bill Clinton.”

Els and Colsaerts just fall short for Steve but it's time to move on. What's the plan for tonight's final round at the Humana Challenge?

18.15 - January 22, 2012

Having seethed for a good hour or more, following the conclusion of the Volvo Golf Champions, it's time to move on. Much to my surprise and disappointment, Branden Grace has gone back-to-back and followed up last week's success in Joburg, beating Retief Goosen and Ernie Els in a play-off.

At one point, both my in-running plays, Ernie Els and Nicolas Colsaerts, looked to have the event between them but it wasn't to be. Ernie Els hit the front when he eagled the 13th but he failed to pick up another shot until the last. Several birdie efforts grazed the hole but agonisingly, none dropped.

Colsaerts, not for the first time this week, suffered with his nerves and every time he looked in pole position his play off the tee was abysmal. He eventually missed a short par putt on the last hole to miss out on the playoff. It felt inevitable and it wasn't a shock.

Mercifully, Els traded heavy odds on and I was able to lock in some profit. He was matched at as low as [1.5] and I layed him at [1.94] but a win for him or Colsaerts would have been so much better.

High winds caused havoc at the Humana Challenge yesterday and the players have had to come back and finish off round three today. Mark Wilson has moved into a three shot lead, over Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, who birdied his last six holes of round three, my man Ben Crane and one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner picks, Robert Garrigus.

Garrigus has already had a remarkable tournament. Playing with a long putter for the first time, he was six over par through just eight holes but something must have clicked, he's played the next 46 holes in 24 under par!

It's been a typically frustrating event to bet on with TV coverage revolving around an out of contention Phil Mickelson, an uncompetitive Greg Norman and an ex-president in Bill Clinton. It was unwatchable yesterday and I gave up way before the suspension of play when there had been no sign of those leading the event after a good hour of watching.

Coverage begins again on Sky at 8.00pm and they should concentrate on the leaders tonight. I'm going to look to trade a bit in-running, with an eye to laying anyone that goes odds on. I'll be back tomorrow with the De-Brief.

16.35 - January 21, 2012

A trio of experienced Americans have put a little daylight between themselves and the field at the Humana Challenge and fortunately for me, one of them is Ben Crane, who I backed after the first round at [29.0].

Alongside Crane on -16 are David Toms and Mark Wilson and it looks like a Bob Hope leaderboard of old. Over the last couple of years the big-hitting young guns have started to dominate this event (formally the Bob Hope) but prior to that experienced pros usually came to the fore come Sunday afternoon.

There's a gap of three back to the remainder and I've added one of those on -13 to the portfolio. As an up-and-coming big hitter, Harris English, is the player that matches the profile of recent winners the closest and at a generous price of [44.0] he looked worth taking a chance on.

With low scoring the order of the day, it's hard to be bullish about anyone here. Bill Haas trailed by seven shots at this stage last year but made the play-off and he came from five back to win two years ago. Other recent winners to come from off the pace with two rounds to play include Charley Hoffman (six back in 2007), Justin Leonard (eight back in 2005) and Jesper Parnevik (seven back in 2000). And who can forget David Duval's final round 59 to come from seven back on the final day in 1999.

Given those stats, I'm going to leave it at that for now and cheer on Crane.

Links golf fans were in clover watching the third round of the Volvo Golf Champions today as the wind whipped up and the cream rose to the top.

The halfway leader, Branden Grace, looked shaky at times but a birdie at the final hole means he still retains a share of the lead with Nicholas Colsaerts, who looked much more comfortable playing from off the pace today. After that it's major winners all the way. The next seven on the leaderboard have all won at least one biggy. The pressure will be on the youngsters tomorrow for sure and I'm not particularly confident of collecting on Colsaerts.

Charl Schwartzel, currently a shot out of the lead and alongside Retief Goosen, heads the market and I'm not surprised. He's been slowly improving since returning to action last week at the Joburg Open and his price of [3.75] looks far more appealing than the [4.5] currently available on Grace.

I'm going to hope for the best with Colsaerts but I have added one more, albeit modestly. Paul Krishnamurty had enough faith in the old warrior Ernie Els to side with him from the start. I confess, I was somewhat sceptical, but at [46.0], just four off the lead, he now looks a value play.

Ernies been two-over par through six holes every day so far this week so if he starts a bit better tomorrow he's bound to feel good. Now in the veteran stage, I fancy Ernie wins will be few and far between but this looks like a chance to me. He knows the course intricately and if he gets on a roll he might just post a number that those teeing off behind him struggle to match. And wouldn't that be a fantastic finale to what's been a thoroughly enjoyable tournament.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the state of play in the States with a round to go.

18.45 - January 20, 2012

It seems I've vastly underestimated Branden Grace. I thought his win last week was on the lucky side, I could have been wrong...

He had a pretty poor in-contention record prior to that and his opponents were virtually non-existent on the back-nine last Sunday and Grace's level par round, on a course where most players would be disappointed with two or three under, was enough to get the job done.

Moving on to Fancourt this week, even though he lives a mile from the course, I thought his price of under [30.0] was very short. It looks like I was wrong, he's played some scintillating stuff and he takes a four shot lead into the weekend.

Tied for second on -8 are Lee Slattery and Thomas Aiken, who I was supposed to be backing this week! At the end of last year I highlighted Aiken's chance here but he's been so poor over the weekend at his last few events I left him out. A decision I don't regret...yet. I still envisage another Aiken meltdown. They're almost like clockwork.

Of my pre-event picks, Michael Hoey has been pretty hopeless, Thomas Bjorn has ticked along and is currently seven off the lead on -5, and Tom Lewis has today had a shocker.

At one stage yesterday Lewis looked like the only man to serve it up to first round leader Nicholas Colsaerts but it all went pear-shaped as he played the 16th. Colsaerts was in the clubhouse, having shot an incredible nine-under par 64 but with Lewis on -6 with three to play, including two par fives, he looked likely to accompany the Belgian today in the final group but it all changed in seconds. His scorecard was amended, changing an eagle at the 5th hole to a birdie and he double-bogeyed the 16th! He went from challenging to floundering in the time it took me to go and switch the kettle on. I wasn't happy, especially as Colsaerts had come very close to being a pick from the start too!

As disappointing as yesterday was, today has been worse. Lewis recovered to birdie the last two holes of round one yesterday and even with the score change and the double-bogey; he still started today on -5 and tied for second place. He's ended today in a tie for 15th, and he trails Grace by eight.

To make matters worse, I was still keen to get Colsaerts onside and I took a chance on him after he'd bogeyed the third and fourth holes. I knew he was about to play a couple of birdie holes and I fancied he could recover from the poor start and backed him at [11.0]. Oops. He's now available at over [30.0]!

I'm going to let this roll now. I'm tempted to lay Grace at around [2.6] but then I look at his closest challengers, Slattery, Aiken and Jose Maria Olazabal and I'm somewhat put off. At the last tournament played here, the 2006 South Africa Open, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els opened up a considerable gap on the remainder and I fear, if he starts ok tomorrow, that Grace could get away from the field here too. He must know the place like the back of his hand and if he were to end tomorrow four or five clear he may be able to defend that lead on Sunday. Besides, after the start to 2012 that I've had, discretion has to be viewed the better part of valour.

It's still early days at the Humana Challenge but I've already added to my two pre-event bets by backing my old mate Ben Crane at [29.0] after the first round. I thought my woeful form had continued when he bogeyed his first hole of round two but he's bounced back well and is currently leading. Fingers crossed.

It's a funny leaderboard; the majority of fancied players have started very poorly and already look doomed. I'll take a much closer look at this tomorrow morning, while I'm watching events in South Africa, and I'll post again here soon after.

Volvo Golf Champions Selections
Thomas Bjorn @ [42.0]
Tom Lewis @ [50.0]
Michael Hoey @ [85.0]
In-running bet
Nicholas Colsaerts @ [11.0]
Ernie Els @ [46.0]

Humana Challenge Selections:
Scott Piercy @ [110.0]
Jason Kokrak @ [300.0]
In-running bet
Ben Crane @ [29.0]
Harris English @ [44.0]

Our man takes a good look at this week's US PGA Tour event and comes up with a monster-priced pick......

We're in for a treat, as a select field heads for the stunning Fancourt Links but what will it take to win?...

The Punter looks back on last week's golf action with plenty of pointers for future events and he's even got an early shout for this week's Humana Challenge......

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Premier League Betting: Arsenal bring in Lille star Gervinho

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 11 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Arsene Wenger has confirmed that Gervinho has agreed to join Arsenal

"An early World Cup exit for his nation contributed to him staying at Lille last summer and what followed was easily his most successful campaign since arriving in Europe in 2004."

Gervinho won more trophies last season than several of his new team-mates have earned in their careers, but that's not the reason why he should prove a shrewd addition, says Michael Lintorn.

Sceptical Arsenal supporters and gleeful critics may look at Arsene Wenger's decision to once again shop in Ligue 1 and view the arrival of Gervinho as uninspiring, but the Ivorian forward has every chance of proving a big hit for the silverware-hungry north Londoners.

For starters, unlikely recent additions who the jury either remains out on or has already returned a negative verdict on like Laurent Koscielny and Marouane Chamakh, Gervinho has both appeared and impressed at a World Cup.

Indeed, the 24-year-old's spell in South Africa could have lasted longer had boss Sven-Goran Eriksson not misguidedly dropped him for Ivory Coast's toughest match against Brazil despite him being the standout performer in the goalless draw against Portugal that preceded it.

That questionable call by the Leicester boss arguably worked out well for Gervinho though as an early exit for his nation contributed to him staying at Lille last summer and what followed was easily his most successful campaign since arriving in Europe in 2004.

After two years battling relegation in the Belgian Jupiler League with Beveren, who brought him over from Toumodi in his homeland, two seasons mid-table in France with Le Mans and a decent fourth-place finish in his first term at Lille, the braid-wearer became a double winner in 2010-11.

His impact on Lille's remarkable success on a shoestring, with a team that was assembled for around just £13 million, might not have received as much publicity as Eden Hazard and top scorer Moussa Sow's, however he played a major part, striking 18 times and weighing in with ten assists too.

The goals were no shock, as the wide man netted 13 times in his first campaign at the Stade Lille-Metropole, but the assist rate was a huge increase on four the year before and an indication that his game continues to grow. Gunners fans will be similarly encouraged by the fact that his goal tally has risen every season in France.

Gervinho was able to force a move to Arsenal because he only had a year to run on his contract. The switch is something of a risk though given that he regularly states his desire to play in the Champions League, yet has left a guaranteed spot in the group stage for qualifying action at the Emirates.

He clearly feels that the slight gamble is justified and is [10.0] to be vindicated with a second successive triumph, while it is [23.0] that his first foray into the Champions League is a victorious one.

Luka Modric has his heart set on a move to Chelsea but he's finding out like other Spurs players before him that he'll only be sold when Daniel Levy is good and ready to let him go. The interesting thing...

There is speculation that Chelsea will move for Joao Moutinho following Michael Essien's injury in pre-season training, while their pursuit of Luka Modric may not be over....

The betting says he's off with Real Madrid and Chelsea the leading contenders but there are plenty of reasons to doubt that, says Joe Dyer...

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Bonheur can bring some joy at Naas‏

Tipping / Billy Nash / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jessica Harrington saddles It's Freezing at Naas today

"Rose Bonheur represents some strong form lines and looks the one to beat in the sprint handicap at 18:30."

My colleagues Stuart Jones and Pat Jupp have been in good form lately so hopefully I can keep the good run going today...

Rose Bonheur represents some strong form lines and looks the one to beat in the sprint handicap for three-year -olds (18:30). She went down by the narrowest of margins on both of her starts at the Curragh last year (behind History Note on second occasion) and wasn't beaten far by the subsequent listed winner and Nell Gwyn runner-up, Sing Softly, there on return. Rose Bonheur didn't need to improve to land a five-furlong maiden at Tipperary last time but will be suited by the return to this trip, is less exposed than most of these and it seems significant that connections are letting her take her chance in a handicap rather than aiming for something better.

Fran Berry has made a fine start to the season and he looks to have a good chance of adding to his tally courtesy of It's Freezing in the maiden at 19:30. This son of High Chaparral has improved for the step up to this trip this season, finishing fourth in a hot maiden won by Marksmanship at the Curragh and third to Zanughan at Navan last time. There is nothing of that calibre in this race and Jessica Harrington's colt is taken to get the better of Red Shaheen, who finished second in a muddling handicap at Dundalk last time, and Sam Lord's Castle, who appeared to have every chance in the maiden won by Parker's Mill at Tipperary last time.

The apprentice handicap at 20:00 is not a race to go overboard about but one could do worse than have a small interest on Neon Tiger. Although still a maiden after eleven starts, Neon Tiger didn't run too badly from much higher marks than this on a couple of occasions last year and got going too late when fourth at Dundalk last time. The addition of cheekpieces should sharpen him up here, he has been dropped another 3 lb since last seen, is quite well drawn and will be suited by this stiffer track.

Back Rose Bonheur @ [4.1] Naas 18:30
Back It's Freezing @ [3.05] Naas 19:30
Back Neon Tiger win and place in the 20:00 at Naas

Three backs for Wednesday's racing from Timeform's US team......

Phil Thompson is in the placepot hotseat for the first day of the Dante meeting......

It's day one of York's Dante Meeting and we've got one bet there to go with two on the polytrack at Kempton this evening......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Moorhouse to bring it home

Timeform Radio Tip / Neil Munro / 04 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

"But I always try and find that little bit more value and Moorhouse Lad catches the eye. He is drawn perfectly in Stall One which will allow him to use his natural speed to get to the front and take the shortest route."

There's a right mix of exciting action today in the world of racing. Neil Munro talks us through the best betting options.

We have a bit of everything today. One of the best meetings left on the calendar, in the form of the Chester May Meeting, begins today. Punchestown continues with some fantastic jumps action, never forget the All-Weather at Southwell, average jumps card up at Kelso, and the Hunter Chase night at Cheltenham tonight alongside Uttoxeter. Are we missing anything?

With all this racing my first point of call is always the sprint races and we have a cracking Class 2 handicap at Chester. The 15.30 has some of the better class sprinters around, some who have been contesting better contests than this last year and others who will be going onto better this year. Because of connections, draw and his previous winning run, Falasteen will be popular. As is the likely future Group class performer Blue Jack. But I always try and find that little bit more value and Moorhouse Lad catches the eye. He is drawn perfectly in Stall One which will allow him to use his natural speed to get to the front and take the shortest route. He runs off a mark of 95, which if he is on a going day, will not hold him back. Personally I'm looking to try and lay out my stake at around [3.05] and then put up further lays at odds-on in case he goes close but doesn't quite hold on.

Overturn could be a similar back-to-lay play in the Chester Cup at 14.55.

Over at Southwell in the 15.55, a low grade 6f handicap, Charles Parnell caught my eye. Now I know before the three months off he hadn't been running particularly well but this break may have freshened him up and he has a good record over the course and distance. He is definitely on a winning mark as long as he just isn't on the downgrade. You can put a line through many of the other runners so he's worth a punt at around [8.4] as I type.

One other horse to mention, in the Southwell 14.45. Callum's Rainbowe was backed the other day before being withdrawn and again has money around the colt today. Not a race I would have a bet in but if you like market movers, have a look at this debutante.

Have a great day.

Martin Dixon livens up Tuesday afternoon with a pair of promising bets on the Flat......

It's Monday and it's Terry Norman in the Timeform Radio hotseat. Here are his picks of the day's action....

The pick of the action may be at HQ but Terry Norman has identified a promising pair from elsewhere......

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